Jewett-Cameron Trading Co (Jewett-Cameron Trading Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Jewett-Cameron Trading Co (Jewett-Cameron Trading Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Ltd (NAS:JCTCF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

32275 North West Hillcrest, P.O. Box 1010, North Plains, OR, USA, 97133

Website

https://www.jewettcameron.com

Jewett-Cameron Trading Co Ltd through its subsidiaries engages in the wholesale distribution of a variety of specialty wood products. Its operating segments include, The Industrial wood products segment is engaged in the processing and distribution of industrial wood products. The Pet Fencing and Other segment, which is the key revenue driver, operates as a wholesaler of wood products and a manufacturer and distributor of specialty metal products. The Seed processing and sales segment processes and distributes agricultural seed and Corporate and administrative. The company predominantly operates in United States and also has its presence in Canada, Latin America, Europe and Asia and other regions.

Executives

Chad Michael Summers	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2615 COEUR D'ALENE DR, WEST LINN OR 97065
Van Domelen Mitchell David	officer: CFO and Corporate Secretary	17492 NW COUNTRY DRIVE, PORTLAND OR 97223
Michael Charles Nasser	10 percent owner, officer: Corporate Secretary	3150 S.W. 72ND, PORTLAND OR 97225
Oregon Community Foundation	10 percent owner	1221 SW YAMHILL #100, PORTLAND OR 97205
Donald Boone Irrev Trust	10 percent owner	C/O RIVERVIEW TRUST COMPANY, 900 WASHINGTON ST, SUITE 900, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Donald M Boone	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President/CEO/Treasurer	PO BOX 1010, N PLAINS OR 97133
Chris Joseph Karlin	director	1822 PROSPECT AVE, HOOD RIVER OR 97031
Sarah Kathleen Johnson	director	810 NE 22ND AVE, PORTLAND OR 97232
Geoffrey Gaddy Guilfoy	director	1260 NW NAITO PARKWAY #704, PORTLAND OR 97209
Charles E. Hopewell	director, officer: President and CEO	P.O. BOX 1010, NORTH PLAINS OR 97133
Frank Gerald Magdlen	director	13620 SE MAPLE LANE, MILWAUKIE OR 97222
Ted A Sharp	director	428 CRYSTAL SPRINGS LN, KEIZER OR 97303
Ralph Elton Lodewick	director	5945 NW SEWELL RD, HILLSBORO OR 97124
Murray George Smith	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11920 SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS PARKWAY,, SUITE 200, LAS VEGAS NV 89141
Thomas Robert Rice	officer: Chief Financial Officer	P.O. BOX 1010, NORTH PLAINS OR 97133