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JMP Group LLC (JMP Group LLC) Predictability Rank


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What is JMP Group LLC Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


JMP Group LLC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

JMP Group LLC Predictability Rank Related Terms

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JMP Group LLC (JMP Group LLC) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
600 Montgomery Street, Suite 1100, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94111
JMP Group LLC is an investment bank that focuses its investment banking and equity research services on small and middle-market firms in five industries: consumer, financial services, health care, real estate, and technology. JMP provides capital raising, financial advisory, sales and trading, and equity research services. JMP also manages more than $1 billion of assets through its hedge funds and collateralized loan obligation management business.
Executives
Glenn H Tongue director 600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Craig R Johnson director 600 MONTGOMERY STREET SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Kenneth M Karmin director 11111 SANTA MONICA BLVD. SUITE 1640 LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Harry Mark Lunenburg director C/O TALON CAPITAL 1001 FARMINGTON AVE WEST HARTFORD CT 06107
David M Dipietro director 10 CHITTENDEN LANE OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Jonathan M Orszag director C/O COMPASS LEXECON 1101 K STREET NW, 8TH FLOOR WASHINGTON DC 20005
Joseph A Jolson director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO 600 MONTGOMERY STREET SUITE 1700 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Thomas Rowe Wright officer: Director of Equities 450 PARK AVENUE 5TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Carter D Mack director, officer: President 600 MONTGOMERY STREET SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Raymond Jackson officer: CFO 600 MONTGOMERY STREET SUITE 1100 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Mark L Lehmann director, officer: President, JMP Securities 600 MONTGOMERY STREET SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Kent Ledbetter other: executive committee member 600 MONTGOMERY STREET SUITE 1100 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111

JMP Group LLC (JMP Group LLC) Headlines

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