The Kraft Heinz Co (The Kraft Heinz Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The Kraft Heinz Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Kraft Heinz Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Kraft Heinz Co (The Kraft Heinz Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » The Kraft Heinz Co (NAS:KHC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KHC:Peru KHC:Mexico 1KHC:Italy KHNZd:UK 0JRV:UK KHNZ:Germany KHNZ:Germany KHNZ:Germany KHNZ:Germany KHCB34:Brazil KHC:Austria

Address

One PPG Place, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15222

Website

https://www.kraftheinzcompany.com

In July 2015, Kraft merged with Heinz to create the third-largest food and beverage manufacturer in North America behind PepsiCo and Nestle and the fifth-largest player in the world. Beyond its namesake brands, the combined firm's portfolio includes Oscar Mayer, Velveeta, and Philadelphia. While the retail channel drives around 85% of its total sales, the firm operates a growing presence in the foodservice arena. Outside North America, Kraft Heinz's global reach counts a distribution network in Europe and emerging markets that drives 20%-25% of its consolidated sales base, as its products are sold in more than 190 countries and territories.

Executives

Lande Rashida La	officer: SVP, Global Gen Csl & Corp Sec	C/O THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY, ONE PPG PLACE, SUITE 3200, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Vince Garlati	officer: VP, Global Controller (PAO)	C/O THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY, ONE PPG PLACE, SUITE 3200, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Humberto P Alfonso	director	1085 OCEAN AVENUE, MANTOLOKING NJ 08738
Flavio Torres	officer: Head of Global Operations	THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY, 200 E. RANDOLPH ST., CHICAGO IL 60601
Melissa Werneck	officer: EVP & Global Chief People Ofcr	C/O THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY, ONE PPG PLACE, SUITE 3200, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Marcos Eloi	officer: Chief Procurement Officer	200 E RANDOLPH STREET SUITE 7600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Diane J Gherson	director	IBM CORPORATION, ONE NEW ORCHARD ROAD, ARMONK NY 10504
Miguel Patricio	officer: Chief Executive Officer	200 E. RANDOLPH STREET SUITE 7600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Alicia R Knapp	director	C/O THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY, ONE PPG PLACE, SUITE 3200, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
James Park	director	C/O FITBIT, INC., 405 HOWARD STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Andre Maciel	officer: EVP & Global CFO	C/O THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY, ONE PPG PLACE, SUITE 3200, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Yang Xu	officer: SVP, Global Head of Corp Dev	C/O GAMESTOP CORP., 625 WESTPORT PARKWAY, GRAPEVINE TX 76051
Kathy Krenger	officer: SVP & Global Chief Comm. Ofcr	C/O THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY, ONE PPG PLACE, SUITE 3200, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
3g Global Food Holdings Lp	10 percent owner	C/O 3G CAPITAL INC., 600 THIRD AVE., 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Bruno Keller	officer: Zone President, Canada	200 E. RANDOLPH STREET SUITE 7600, CHICAGO IL 60601