Kimberly-Clark (Kimberly-Clark) Predictability Rank

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What is Kimberly-Clark Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kimberly-Clark Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Kimberly-Clark Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Kimberly-Clark (Kimberly-Clark) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Kimberly-Clark Corp (NYSE:KMB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KMB:Mexico KMY:Germany KMY:Germany KMY:Germany KMBB34:Brazil KMBC:Austria KMB:Argentina

Address

P.O. Box 619100, Dallas, TX, USA, 75261-9100

Website

https://www.kimberly-clark.com

With more than half of sales from personal care and another third from tissue products, Kimberly-Clark sits as a leading manufacturer in the tissue and hygiene realm. Its brand mix includes Huggies, Pull-Ups, Kotex, Depend, Kleenex, and Cottonelle. The firm also operates K-C Professional, which partners with businesses to provide safety and sanitary products for the workplace. Kimberly-Clark generates just over of half its sales in North America and more than 10% in Europe, with the rest primarily concentrated in Asia and Latin America.

Executives

Jeffrey P. Melucci	officer: SVP - General Counsel	351 PHELPS DRIVE, IRVING TX 75038
Zackery A Hicks	officer: Chief Digital & Technology Off	C/O SIGNET JEWELERS LIMITED, 375 GHENT ROAD, AKRON OH 44333
Deeptha Khanna	director	PO BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261
Sandra R Karrmann	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	P.O. BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261-9100
Doug Cunningham	officer: President, EMEA	PO BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261
Andrew Drexler	officer: Vice President and Controller	C/O GNC HOLDINGS, INC., 300 SIXTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Michael D. Hsu	officer: Group Pres., NACP	C/O KRAFT FOODS GROUP, INC., THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60048
Tristram Wilkinson	officer: President, EMEA	P.O. BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261-9100
Tamera Fenske	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	PO BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261
Sylvia M Mathews	director	P.O. BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261
Nelson Urdaneta	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL, INC., THREE PARKWAY NORTH, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Todd Maclin	director	P.O. BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261
Ehab Abou-oaf	officer: President KCP	PO BOX 619100, DALLAS TX 75261
Deirdre Mahlan	director	1201 DOWDELL LANE, SAINT HELENA CA 94574
Jaime A Ramirez	director	1000 STANLEY DRIVE, NEW BRITAIN CT 06053