Kinder Morgan (Kinder Morgan) Predictability Rank

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What is Kinder Morgan Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kinder Morgan Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kinder Morgan (Kinder Morgan) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Kinder Morgan Inc (NYSE:KMI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2KD:Germany 2KD:Germany KMIC34:Brazil KMI:Austria

Address

1001 Louisiana Street, Suite 1000, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.kindermorgan.com

Kinder Morgan is one of the largest midstream energy firms in North America, with an interest in or an operator on about 83,000 miles in pipelines and 140 storage terminals. The company is active in the transportation, storage, and processing of natural gas, crude oil, refined products, natural gas liquids, and carbon dioxide. The majority of Kinder Morgan's cash flows stem from fee-based contracts for handling, moving, and storing fossil fuel products.

Executives

John W Schlosser	officer: V.P. (President, Terminals)	1001 LOUISIANA, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Dax Sanders	officer: V.P., Corporate Development	1001 LOUISIANA, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Denise R Mathews	officer: VP, Human Resources/Admin/IT	1001 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Sital K Mody	officer: V.P. (Pres.,Nat Gas Pipelines)	1001 LOUISIANA STREET SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Anthony B Ashley	officer: VP (President, CO2 and ETV)	1001 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Jesse Arenivas	officer: VP(President, CO2)	1001 LOUISIANA, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Deborah Macdonald	director	KINDER MORGAN, INC., 1001 LOUISIANA, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Gary Hultquist	director	1001 LOUISIANA, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Robert F Vagt	director	5300 MEMORIAL DR, STE 800, HOUSTON TX 77007
Thomas A Martin	officer: VP (Pres., Natural Gas Pipeln)	1001 LOUISIANA, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
William A Smith	director	KINDER MORGAN, 1001 LOUISIANA, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Richard D Kinder	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	1001 LOUISIANA, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Perry M Waughtal	director	1001 LOUISIANA, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Kevin P Grahmann	officer: V.P., Corporate Development	1001 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Steven J Kean	director, officer: Exec VP & COO	1001 LOUISIANA, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002