Kansas City Southern (Kansas City Southern) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1962. Start your Free Trial

What is Kansas City Southern Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kansas City Southern Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Kansas City Southern Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Kansas City Southern's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Kansas City Southern (Kansas City Southern) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

427 West 12th Street, Kansas City, MO, USA, 64105

Website

https://www.kcsouthern.com

Kansas City Southern, the smallest Class I railroad, derives about half of its $2.6 billion revenue on 3,400 miles of track in the Central and Southern United States. Remaining sales are produced by operating concessions on 3,300 miles of rail in Mexico and 47 miles of track adjacent to the Panama Canal. KCS' freight includes industrial and forest products (around 21% of total revenue), chemicals and petroleum (26%), agriculture and minerals (18%), intermodal (13%), energy (9%), and autos (9%); other revenue stems from switching, demurrage, and the like.

Executives

Warren K Erdman	officer: Executive Vice President
Lora S Cheatum	officer: Sr. VP - Human Resources	KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN PO BOX 219335 KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Suzanne M Grafton	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	427 W 12TH STREET KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Del Cueto Cuevas Oscar Augusto	officer: President & Exec Rep of Sub	427 W 12TH STREET KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Michael W Upchurch	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, PO BOX 219335, KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Patrick J Ottensmeyer	officer: President & CEO	PO BOX 219335, KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Adam J Godderz	officer: SVP Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec	427 W 12TH STREET KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Brian D. Hancock	officer: EVP & Chief Innovation Officer	KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, PO BOX 219335, KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Michael J. Naatz	officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer	10990 ROE AVE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Thomas A Mcdonnell	director	C/O KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, 427 W 12TH STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Garza Santos David F	director	AV. INDUSTRIALES DEL PONIENTE NO. 2300 SANTA CATARINA, N.L. O5 66350
Robert J Druten	director	6503 SENECA ROAD, MISSION HILLS KS 66208
Jeffrey M Songer	officer: EVP & COO	KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN PO BOX 219335 KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Janet H Kennedy	director	KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN, PO BOX 219335, KANSAS CITY MO 64121
Lydia I Beebe	director	13403 NORTHWEST FREEWAY, HOUSTON TX 77040