Lee Enterprises (Lee Enterprises) Predictability Rank

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What is Lee Enterprises Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lee Enterprises Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lee Enterprises (Lee Enterprises) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Lee Enterprises Inc (NAS:LEE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LE70:Germany

Address

4600 E 53rd Street, Davenport, IA, USA, 52807

Website

https://www.lee.net

Lee Enterprises Inc is a local news publication company in the United States. It is a digital-first subscription business providing local markets with valuable, high quality, trusted, intensely local news, information, advertising and marketing services. Its product portfolio includes digital subscription platforms, daily, weekly and monthly newspapers and niche products, all delivering original local news and information as well as national and international news. The products offer digital and print editions, and its content and advertising is available in real time through the websites and mobile apps.

Executives

Shaun Mcalmont	director	C/O LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP., 200 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 340, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Moloney Herbert W Iii	director	215 N MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, DAVENPORT IA 52801
Steven C. Fletcher	director	C/O LEE ENTERPRISES, INCORPORATED, 4600 EAST 53RD STREET, DAVENPORT IA 52807
Margaret R. Liberman	director	C/O LEE ENTERPRISES, INCORPORATED, 201 N. HARRISON STREET, STE. 600, DAVENPORT IA 52801
David T. Pearson	director	C/O VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP, 23 MAIN STREET, HOLMDEL NJ 07733
Jolene N. Sherman	officer: V.P. - Business Development	C/O LEE ENTERPRISES, INCORPORATED, 4600 E. 53RD STREET, DAVENPORT IA 52807
Joseph J Battistoni	officer: VP - Local Advertising	C/O LEE ENTERPRISES, INCORPORATED, 4600 E. 53RD STREET, DAVENPORT IA 52807
Astrid J Garcia	officer: VP - Human Resources & Legal	C/O LEE ENTERPRISES, INCORPORATED, 4600 E. 53RD STREET, DAVENPORT IA 52807
Cannell Capital Llc	10 percent owner	245 MERIWETHER CIRCLE, ALTA WY 83414
Nancy S Donovan	director
William E Mayer	director	C/O LEE ENTERPRISES INC, 201 N. HARRISON ST., STE. 600, DAVENPORT IA 52801
Ray G Farris	officer: V.P. & Group Publisher	C/O LEE ENTERPRISES, INCORPORATED, 201 N HARRISON STREET, STE. 600, DAVENPORT IA 52801
Gregory P Schermer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Vice Pres.-Interactive Media	C/O LEE ENTERPRISES INCORPORATED, 215 N MAIN STREET STE 400, DAVENPORT IA 52801
Timothy R. Millage	officer: V.P., CFO and Treasurer	C/O LEE ENTERPRISES, INCORPORATED, 201 N HARRISON STREET, STE. 600, DAVENPORT IA 52801
Michael R Gulledge	officer: Vice President - Publishing	C/O LEE ENTERPRISES, INCORPORATED, 201 N. HARRISON STREET, DAVENPORT IA 52801-1939