What is Lifevantage Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Lifevantage Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Lifevantage (Lifevantage) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3300 N. Triumph Boulevard, Suite 700, Lehi, UT, USA, 84043
Lifevantage Corp is engaged in the identification, research, development, and distribution of nutraceutical dietary supplements and skincare products. It offers products such as Protandim, a scientifically-validated dietary supplement; LifeVantage TrueScience, an anti-aging skincare product; Axio energy drink mixes; and PhysIQ, a weight management system, as well as Canine Health, a companion pet supplement formulated to combat oxidative stress in dogs. Geographically, its products are sold in the regions of the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, Canada, Philippines, Mexico, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.
Executives
| Darwin Lewis |
director |
9785 S. MONROE STREET, SUITE 300, SANDY UT 84070 |
| Michael A Beindorff |
director |
EXCLUSIVE RESORTS, LLC, 1530 16TH STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Garry Paul Mauro |
director |
6400 S. FIDDLER'S GREEN CIRCLE, SUITE 1970, GREENWOOD VILLAGE X1 80111 |
| Sudbury Capital Fund, Lp |
other: See Footnote 1 |
136 OAK TRAIL, COPPELL TX 75019 |
| Bradley Louis Radoff |
other: See Footnote 1 |
2727 KIRBY DRIVE, UNIT 29L, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
| Sudbury Capital Management, Llc |
other: See Footnote 1 |
136 OAK TRAIL, COPPELL TX 75019 |
| Sudbury Holdings, Llc |
other: See Footnote 1 |
136 OAK TRAIL, COPPELL TX 75019 |
| Sudbury Capital Gp, Lp |
other: See Footnote 1 |
136 OAK TRAIL, COPPELL TX 75019 |
| Judd Dayton |
other: See Footnote 1 |
878 S. DENTON TAP RD., SUITE 220, COPPELL TX 75019 |
| Family Foundation Radoff |
other: See Footnote 1 |
2727 KIRBY DRIVE, UNIT 29L, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
| Julie Boyster |
officer: Chief Marketing Officer |
3300 N. TRIUMPH BLVD, SUITE 700, LEHI UT 84043 |
| Kristen Cunningham |
officer: Chief Sales Officer |
3300 N. TRIUMPH BLVD, SUITE 700, LEHI UT 84043 |
| Cynthia Latham |
director |
3300 N. TRIUMPH BLVD., SUITE 700, LEHI UT 84043 |
| Carl Aure |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
3300 N. TRIUMPH BLVD., SUITE 700, LEHI UT 84043 |
| Alissa Neufeld |
officer: General Counsel |
3300 TRIUMPH BLVD, SUITE 700, LEHI UT 84043 |
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