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Fidelity Southern (Fidelity Southern) Predictability Rank


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What is Fidelity Southern Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fidelity Southern Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Fidelity Southern Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Fidelity Southern (Fidelity Southern) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Fidelity Southern Corp (NAS:LION) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
OSL:SVEG OSL:NONG TSE:8381 OHEL:AKTIA BANC WASH MUS:NBOB XKRX:139130 XKLS:5185 ORIT KUW:KIB LBAI TSE:8361 STC:STB OBNK CAI:CIEB.CA XKLS:2488 MIC:AVAN XKRX:175330 BOM:532276
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3490 Piedmont Road, Suite 1550, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30305
Website
http://www.fidelitysouthern.com
Fidelity Southern Corporation operates as the bank holding company based in the metropolitan Atlanta area. It offers financial products and services for business and retail customers primarily in the metropolitan Atlanta and Jacksonville, Orlando and Sarasota-Bradenton and Florida markets. The company serves both individuals and small to medium-sized businesses. It is primarily engaged in attracting deposits from individuals and businesses and using these deposits and borrowed funds to originate commercial, residential mortgage, construction and installment loans. In addition, it also conducts indirect automobile lending, residential mortgage lending, and Small Business Administration lending activities in over 10 states.
Executives
William Millard Choate director 3490 PIEDMONT ROAD, SUITE 1550, ATLANTA GA 30305
Rodney D Bullard director 3490 PIEDMONT ROAD, NE, SUITE 1550, ATLANTA GA 30305
Miller James B Jr director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, other: Executive Officer C/O FIDELITY SOUTHERN CORPORATION, 3490 PIEDMONT ROAD #1550, ATLANTA GA 30305
Proctor H Palmer Jr director, officer: Executive officer
Stephen H Brolly officer: Chief Financial Officer, other: Executive Officer 500 SOUTH SERVICE ROAD EAST, RUSTON LA 71270
Miller James H Iii director GEORGIA POWER CO, BIN 10240 241 RALPH MCGILL BLVD, ATLANTA GA 30308-3374