What is Logitech International Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Logitech International Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Logitech International (Logitech International) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
EPFL - Quartier de l'Innovation, Daniel Borel Innovation Center, Lausanne, CHE, 1015
Logitech was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Lausanne, Switzerland. The company specializes in designing and manufacturing computer peripherals such as mice, keyboards, webcams, conference room cameras, headsets, and music-related products such as wireless speakers.
Executives
| Samantha Harnett |
officer: General Counsel |
1836 CLEMENS ROAD, OAKLAND CA 94602 |
| Charles D Boynton |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
|
| Prakash Arunkundrum |
officer: Head of Global Operations |
C/O LOGITECH INC., 7700 GATEWAY BLVD., NEWARK CA 94560 |
| Kwok Wang Ng |
director |
C/O LOGITECH INC., 7700 GATEWAY BLVD., NEWARK CA 94580 |
| Sascha Zahnd |
director |
C/O LOGITECH INC., 7700 GATEWAY BLVD., NEWARK CA 94580 |
| Christopher Richardson Jones |
director |
1501 FIRST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98134 |
| Patrick Aebischer |
director |
C/O LOGITECH INTERNATIONAL S.A., LES CHATAGNIS, APPLES V8 1143 |
| Nathan Olmstead |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
C/O LOGITECH INC., 7700 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, NEWARK CA 94560 |
| Riet Cadonau |
director |
C/O LOGITECH INC., 7700 GATEWAY BLVD., NEWARK CA 94560 |
| Bracken Darrell |
officer: President |
2000 M-63N, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022 |
| Didier Hirsch |
director |
5301 STEVENS CREEK BOULEVARD, SANTA CLARA CA 95051 |
| Neela Montgomery |
director |
C/O LOGITECH INTERNATIONAL S.A., LES CHATAGNIS, APPLES V8 1143 |
| Deborah Thomas |
director |
C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02862 |
| Guy Gecht |
director |
|
| Michael B Polk |
director |
100 DEFOREST AVE, EAST HANOVER NJ 07936 |
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