Grand Canyon Education (Grand Canyon Education) Predictability Rank

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What is Grand Canyon Education Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Grand Canyon Education Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Grand Canyon Education (Grand Canyon Education) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » Grand Canyon Education Inc (NAS:LOPE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GKD:Germany

Address

2600 West Camelback Road, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85017

Website

https://www.gcu.edu

Grand Canyon Education, Inc is a publicly traded education services company dedicated to serving colleges and universities. GCE's most significant university partner is Grand Canyon University, an Arizona non-profit corporation that operates a comprehensive regionally accredited university that offers graduate and undergraduate degree programs, emphases and certificates across nine colleges both online, on ground at its campus in Phoenix, Arizona and at four off-site classroom and laboratory sites. The Company generates all of its revenue through services agreements with its university partners.

Executives

Jack A Henry	director	C/O SIERRA BLANCA VENTURES, 1211 E. MISSOURI AVENUE, SUITE 222, PHOENIX AZ 85014
Lisa Graham Keegan	director	2600 W. CAMELBACK ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85017
Lori Browning	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2600 W. CAMELBACK ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85017
Kathy J. Claypatch	officer: Chief Information Officer	2600 W. CAMELBACK ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85017
Sara R. Dial	director	3300 W. CAMELBACK ROAD, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85017
David Adame	director	2600 W. CAMELBACK ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85017
Brian E Mueller	officer: Chief Executive Officer	3300 W. CAMELBACK ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85017
William Stan Meyer	officer: Executive Vice President	3300 W. CAMELBACK ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85017
Joseph N Mildenhall	officer: Chief Information Officer	3300 W. CAMELBACK AVENUE, PHOENIX AZ 85017
Daniel E Bachus	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3300 W. CAMELBACK ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85017
Dilek Marsh	officer: Chief Data Officer	2600 W. CAMELBACK ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85017
Daniel J. Briggs	officer: Orbis Education, CEO	2600 WEST CAMELBACK ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85017
Chevy Humphrey	director	2600 W. CAMELBACK ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85017
Brian M Roberts	officer: General Counsel	18835 N. THOMPSON PEAK PARKWAY, SUITE 300 & 380, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Brent D. Richardson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	3300 W. CAMELBACK ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85017