LPL Financial Holdings (LPL Financial Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is LPL Financial Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LPL Financial Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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LPL Financial Holdings (LPL Financial Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » LPL Financial Holdings Inc (NAS:LPLA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7LI:Germany

Address

4707 Executive Drive, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.lpl.com

LPL Financial Holdings is an independent broker/dealer that provides a platform of proprietary technology, brokerage, and investment advisory services to financial advisors and institutions. As of the end of 2022, the company had nearly 20,000 advisors on its platform managing over $1 trillion of client assets.

Executives

Sallie R. Larsen	officer: MD, Chief Human Cap. Officer	ONE BEACON STREET, 22ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02018
Aneri Jambusaria	officer: Managing Director	C/O LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC., 4707 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Dan H. Arnold	officer: MD & Division President, FIS	C/O LPL INVESTMENT HOLDINGS INC., ONE BEACON STREET, BOSTON MA 02108
Richard Steinmeier	officer: Managing Director	C/O LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC., 75 STATE STREET, 22ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Althea Brown	officer: Managing Director	C/O LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC., 4707 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Matthew Enyedi	officer: Managing Director	C/O LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC., 75 STATE STREET, 22ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Glavin William Francis Jr	director	6803 SOUTH TUCSON WAY, CENTENNIAL CO 80112
Richard P Schifter	director	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Michelle Oroschakoff	officer: MD, Chief Risk Officer	75 STATE STREET, 24TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Matthew J Audette	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O DAVIS POLK & WARDWELL, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Albert J Ko	director	C/O LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC., 4707 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Brent Simonich	officer: EVP, CAO and Treasurer	C/O E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP., 11 TIMES SQUARE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036-9992
Kabir Sethi	officer: Managing Director	C/O LPL FINANCIAL, 4707 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Edward Fandrey	officer: Managing Director	C/O LPL FINANCIAL, 4707 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
George Burton White	officer: MD, Chief Investment Officer	ONE BEACON STREET, 22ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02108