Main Street Capital (Main Street Capital) Predictability Rank

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What is Main Street Capital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Main Street Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Main Street Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Main Street Capital (Main Street Capital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Main Street Capital Corp (NYSE:MAIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

13M:Germany 13M:Germany

Address

1300 Post Oak Boulevard, 8th Floor, Houston, TX, USA, 77056

Website

https://www.mainstcapital.com

Main Street Capital Corp is an investment firm engaged in providing customized debt and equity financing to lower middle market companies and debt capital to middle market companies. The investment portfolio of the company is typically made to support management buyouts, recapitalizations, growth financings, refinancings, and acquisitions of companies that operate in diverse industry sectors. The group invests in secured debt investments, equity investments, warrants, and other securities of the lower middle market and middle market companies based in the US. Business functioned through the U.S. region and it derives the majority of its income from the source of fees, commission, and interest.

Executives

Jason B Beauvais	officer: VP, General Counsel, Secretary	1300 POST OAK BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77056
John Earl Jackson	director	12001 NORTH HOUSTON ROSSLYN, HOUSTON TX 77086
Nicholas Meserve	officer: Managing Director	1300 POST OAK BLVD., STE 800, HOUSTON TX 77056
Ryan Robert Nelson	officer: VP, CAO, Assistant Treasurer	2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., STE 800, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Dwayne L. Hyzak	officer: Senior Vice President	1300 POST OAK BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77056
David L. Magdol	officer: Senior Vice President	1300 POST OAK BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77056
Vincent D Foster	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	QUANTA SERVICES, INC., 2727 NORTH LOOP WEST, HOUSTON TX 77008
Lance A Parker	officer: VP, CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	800 GESSNER, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Dunia A Shive	director	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Beverly Kay Matthews	director	C/O COHERENT, INC., 5100 PATRICK HENRY DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Jesse E Morris	officer: EVP , CFO AND COO	2800 POST OAK BLVD., STE. 2600, HOUSTON TX 77056
Arthur L. French	director	1300 POST OAK BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77056
Brent D. Smith	officer: SVP - Finance	2500 CITYWEST BOULEVARD, SUITE 2200, HOUSTON TX 77042
Rodger A. Stout	officer: CAO, CCO & Secretary	1300 POST OAK BOULEVARD, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77056
Valerie Lebeaux Banner	director	35 BROAD OAKS ESTATES LANE, HOUSTON TX 77056