Remark Holdings (Remark Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Remark Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Remark Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Remark Holdings (Remark Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Remark Holdings Inc (OTCPK:MARK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3SW:Germany

Address

800 S Commerce Street, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89106

Website

https://www.remarkholdings.com

Remark Holdings Inc delivers an integrated suite of AI solutions that enable businesses and organizations to solve problems, reduce risk and deliver positive outcomes. The company's easy-to-install AI products are being rolled out in a range of applications within the retail, financial, public safety, and workplace arenas. The company also owns and operates digital media properties that deliver relevant content and e-commerce solutions.

Executives

Theodore P Botts	director	C/O HSW INTERNATIONAL, INC., 3350 PEACHTREE ROAD, SUITE 1600, ATLANTA GA 30326
Ling Elizabeth Xu	director	3960 HOWARD HUGHES PKWY, SUITE 900, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Ernest T. Lee	10 percent owner	3271 SOUTH HIGHLAND DRIVE, #704, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Alison Davidson	officer: Interim CFO	C/O REMARK HOLDINGS, INC., 3960 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, SUITE 900, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Douglas Osrow	officer: Chief Financial Officer	FIVE CONCOURSE PKWY, SUITE 2400, ATLANTA GA 30328
Brett Ratner	director	C/O REMARK MEDIA, INC., 3960 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, SUITE 900, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Daniel J. Stein	director	C/O REMARK MEDIA, INC., 3960 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Jason E. Strauss	director	C/O REMARK MEDIA, INC., 3930 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, SUITE 400, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
William Warwick Grounds	director	3600 LAS VEGAS BLVD., S., LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Robert G Goldstein	director	3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Kai-shing Tao	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O HSW INTERNATIONAL, INC., 3350 PEACHTREE ROAD, SUITE 1600, ATLANTA GA 30326
Howstuffworks, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE CAPITAL CITY PLAZA, 3350 PEACHTREE ROAD, SUITE 1500, ATLANTA GA 30326
Digipac, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE HUGHES CENTER DRIVE, UNIT 1601, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Bradley T. Zimmer	officer: Chief Operating Officer and Ge	SIX CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 1500, ATLANTA GA 30328
Carrie Ferman	officer: Chief Executive Officer	SIX CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 1500, ATLANTA GA 30328