Masco (MAS) Predictability Rank

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What is Masco Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Masco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Masco Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Masco (MAS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Masco Corp (NYSE:MAS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MAS:Mexico MSQ:Germany MSQ:Germany

Address

17450 College Parkway, Livonia, MI, USA, 48152

Website

https://www.masco.com

Masco manufactures a variety of home improvement and building products. The company's $5.3 billion plumbing segment, led by the Delta and Hansgrohe brands, sells faucets, showerheads, and other related plumbing fixtures and components. The $3.4 billion decorative architectural segment primarily sells paints and other coatings under the Behr and Kilz brands, but it also sells builder hardware and lighting products.

Executives

Kenneth G. Cole	officer: VP, General Counsel and Sec.	17450 COLLEGE PARKWAY, LIVONIA MI 48152
Jai Shah	officer: VP - Chief HR Officer	17450 COLLEGE PARKWAY, LIVONIA MI 48152
Richard J. Westenberg	officer: VP and CFO	17450 COLLEGE PARKWAY, LIVONIA MI 48152
Donald R Parfet	director	C/O 350 E MICHIGAN AVENUE STE 500, APJOHN GROUP LLC, KALAMAZOO MI 49007
Renee Straber	officer: VP - Chief HR Officer	17450 COLLEGE PARKWAY, LIVONIA MI 48152
Keith J. Allman	director, officer: President and CEO	17450 COLLEGE PARKWAY, LIVONIA MI 48152
Reddy Sandeep	director	C/O GUESS?, INC., 1444 SOUTH ALAMEDA STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90021
David A. Chaika	officer: Interim CFO	17450 COLLEGE PARKWAY, LIVONIA MI 48152
Jonathon Nudi	director	GENERAL MILLS, INC., ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
John G Sznewajs	officer: VP Corp. Development&Treasurer	17450 COLLEGE PARKWAY, LIVONIA MI 48152
Imran Ahmad	officer: Group President	17450 COLLEGE PARKWAY, LIVONIA MI 48152
Turner Reginald M Jr	director	500 WOODWARD AVE, SUITE 3500, DETROIT MI 48226
Stevens Charles K. Iii	director	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, M/C: 482-C25-A36, DETROIT MI 48265-3000
Aine Denari	director	C/O BRUNSWICK CORPORATION, 26125 N. RIVERWOODS BLVD. #500, METTAWA IL 60045
Robin L Zondervan	officer: VP, Controller and CAO	901 44TH STREET SE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49508