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Mattersight (Mattersight) Predictability Rank


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What is Mattersight Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mattersight Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Mattersight Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Mattersight's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Mattersight (Mattersight) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Mattersight Corp (NAS:MATR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
LSE:SPSC XKLS:0176 TSE:4829 PHS:NOW ROCO:8284 ASX:RDY TSE:9702 ROCO:6486 XKRX:214270 LSE:GHT PCYG TSE:3826 TSE:4299 TSE:4387 TSE:3967 ROCO:5403 XKRX:090850 TSE:2186 OLBGD XPAR:ALBFR
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.mattersight.com
Mattersight Corp is engaged in the software industry. It is an enterprise analytics company focusing on customer and employee interactions and behaviors. Mattersight's Behavioral Analytics service captures and analyzes customer and employee interactions, employee desktop data, and other contextual information to improve operational performance and predict future customer and employee outcomes. The company's products include routing, coaching, analytics, and quality. Routing refers to pairing customers and agents to make conversations easier, coaching refers to identifying key improvement opportunities for each employee, analytics uses advanced data science to predict the customer's next action and quality streamlines the QA process.
Executives
Henry Feinberg director 528 RAMONA ST, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Tench Coxe director, 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304
David B Mullen director, officer: CFO C/O NAVIGATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP, 222 MERCHANDISE MART STE 900, CHICAGO IL 60654
Michael L Speiser 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
Jeffrey W Bird 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL RD STE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
James N White 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
Hill Ventures Sutter 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL RD, SUITE A200, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Pullara Samuel J Iii 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Stefan A Dyckerhoff 10 percent owner C.O. JUNIPER NETWORKS, INC., 1194 N. MATHILDA AVE., SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Investor Growth Capital, Llc 10 percent owner ONE ROCKEFELLER PLAZA. SUITE 2801, NEW YORK NY 10020
Younger William H Jr 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
Baker G Leonard Jr 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
James C Gaither 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
Sutter Hill Entrepreneurs Fund Qp Lp 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
Sutter Hill Entrepreneurs Fund Ai Lp 10 percent owner 755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005