Moelis (Moelis) Predictability Rank

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What is Moelis Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Moelis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Moelis (Moelis) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Moelis & Co (NYSE:MC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

17M:Germany 17M:Germany

Address

399 Park Avenue, 4th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.moelis.com

Moelis & Co is an independent investment bank that provides strategic and financial advice to a diverse client base, including corporations, financial sponsors, governments, and sovereign wealth funds. The company assists its clients in achieving their strategic goals by offering comprehensive, globally integrated financial advisory services across all industry sectors. It also advises clients on their critical decisions, including mergers and acquisitions, recapitalizations and restructurings, capital markets transactions, and other corporate finance matters. it generates revenue from advisory transactions. The firm derives a majority of its revenue from the United States followed by Europe and the rest of the World.

Executives

Kenneth Moelis	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O MOELIS & COMPANY, 399 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ciafone Katherine Pilcher	officer: Chief Operating Officer	399 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kenneth Shropshire	director	C/O MOELIS & COMPANY, 399 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011
Elizabeth Crain	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O MOELIS & COMPANY, 399 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Navid Mahmoodzadegan	director, officer: Managing Director	C/O MOELIS & COMPANY, 399 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Osamu R. Watanabe	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O MOELIS & COMPANY, 399 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jeffrey Raich	director, officer: Managing Director	C/O MOELIS & COMPANY, 399 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Christopher Callesano	officer: SVP & Principal Acct Officer	C/O MOELIS & COMPANY, 399 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Laila Worrell	director	399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Joseph Simon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MOELIS & COMPANY, 399 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Yolonda C Richardson	director	399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Leaman J Richard Iii	director, officer: Managing Partner	C/O MOELIS & COMPANY, 399 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
John A Allison	director	PO BOX 1250, WINSTON SALEM NC 27102-1250
Yvonne Greenstreet	director	PACIRA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 5 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Eric Cantor	director	C/O MOELIS & COMPANY, 399 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022