Marcus (Marcus) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1972. Start your Free Trial

What is Marcus Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Marcus Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Marcus Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Marcus's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Marcus (Marcus) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Marcus Corp (NYSE:MCS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3L1:Germany

Address

100 East Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 1900, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53202-4125

Website

http://www.marcuscorp.com

Marcus Corp is engaged in two business segments, which are Theatres and Hotels and Resorts. The Theatre segment operates multiscreen motion picture theatres in Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and Ohio, a family entertainment center in Wisconsin and a retail center in Missouri; Hotels and Resorts segment owns and operates full-service hotels and resorts in Wisconsin, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Nebraska and manages full-service hotels, resorts and other properties in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Texas, Nevada, California, and North Carolina. It generates maximum revenue from the Theatres segment.

Executives

Michael Reade Evans	officer: Pres., Marcus Hotels & Resorts	100 EAST WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202-4125
Mark A Gramz	officer: Pres., Marcus Theatres Corp*	100 EAST WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202-4125
Austin M Ramirez	director	ONE MAIN STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Brian Jay Stark	director	3600 SOUTH LAKE DRIVE, ST. FRANCIS WI 53235
Katherine M. Gehl	director	C/O GEHL FOODS, N116 W15970 MAIN STREET, GERMANTOWN WI 53022
Bruce J Olson	director, officer: Group Vice President
Thomas F Kissinger	officer: General Counsel and Secretary
Chad M Paris	officer: CFO & Treasurer	833 EAST MICHIGAN STREET, SUITE 900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Gregory S Marcus	officer: Senior Vice President	100 EAST WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202-4125
Diane M Gershowitz	director, 10 percent owner
Rolando B Rodriguez	officer: Pres. & CEO - Marcus Theatres	C/O AMC ENTERTAINMENT INC, 920 MAIN ST, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Douglas A Neis	officer: CFO and Treasurer
David M Baum	director	784 MORRIS TURNPIKE #367, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Vss-southern Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	C/O VERONIS SUHLER STEVENSON, 390 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Philip L Milstein	director	390 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 600, NEW YORK NY 10022