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Mercury General (Mercury General) Predictability Rank


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What is Mercury General Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mercury General Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Mercury General Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Mercury General (Mercury General) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Mercury General Corp (NYSE:MCY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
KMPR PLMR STC HMN SKWD LMND HCI WTM SAFT THG PGR CB TSE:8766 TRV ALL HKSE:01339 TSX:IFC HKSE:02328 HIG TSE:8725
Traded in Other Exchanges
MCG:Germany
Address
4484 Wilshire Boulevard, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90010
Website
http://www.mercuryinsurance.com
Mercury General Corp is an insurance holding company operating in the property-casualty market, where it focuses on low-cost auto insurance for individuals, with operations in nearly 13 United States of America states. However, its business--about 75% of premiums--comes from California, where it was established by George Joseph, the current company chairman, and majority owner. Its insurance is distributed exclusively through independent agents.
Executives
Joshua Eric Little director 192 E 200 N, THIRD FLOOR, ST. GEORGE UT 84770
Wei Pang officer: VP/Chief Technology Officer 555 W. IMPERIAL HIGHWAY, BREA CA 92821
Mark Allan Ribisi officer: President of AIS,subsidiary 16969 VON KARMAN AVE., IRVINE CA 92606
Katelyn Marie Gibbs officer: VP/Chief Experience Officer 555 W. IMPERIAL HIGHWAY, BREA CA 92821
Kelly Lynn Butler officer: VP/Chief Underwriting Officer 1700 GREENBRIAR LANE, BREA CA 92821
Joseph Vicky Wai Yee director 4484 WILSHIRE BLVD., LOS ANGELES CA 90010
George Joseph director, officer: Chairman of the Board 4484 WILSHIRE BLVD, LOS ANGELES CA 90010
George Gwyer Braunegg director 6121 SHENANDOAH AVE., LOS ANGELES CA 90010
Abby Hosseini officer: VP/Chief Information Officer 555 W. IMPERIAL HIGHWAY, BREA CA 92821
Brandt Minnich officer: Vice President, Marketing 1700 GREENBRIAR LANE, BREA CA 92821
Gabriel Tirador officer: President, other: Director
Charles Toney officer: Vice President
Jeffrey Michael Schroeder officer: VP/Chief Product Officer 1700 GREENBRIAR LANE, BREA CA 92821
Mike Curtius director
Ramona L Cappello director 4600 SLEEPYTIME DR, BOULDER CO 80301