Mackinac Financial (Mackinac Financial) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2000. Start your Free Trial

What is Mackinac Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mackinac Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Mackinac Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Mackinac Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Mackinac Financial (Mackinac Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Mackinac Financial Corp (NAS:MFNC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

130 South Cedar Street, Manistique, MI, USA, 49854

Website

http://www.bankmbank.com

Mackinac Financial Corp is a bank holding company. It is engaged in the business of retail and commercial banking. Its products and services include checking and savings accounts, time deposits, interest-bearing transaction accounts, safe deposit facilities, commercial and governmental lease financing and direct, indirect consumer financing, commercial lending, treasury management products, services for small to mid-sized businesses as well as full array of personal and business deposit products and consumer loans. It earns revenue from loans, investments and other interest-bearing assets.

Executives

Paul Davison Tobias	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	38710 WOODWARD AVENUE, SUITE 240, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Jesse A Deering	officer: EVP and CFO	260 EAST BROWN ST. SUITE 300 BIRMINGHAM MI 48009
Kelly W George	director, officer: President	130 SOUTH CEDAR STREET MANISTIQUE MI 49854
Martin A Thomson	director
Randolph Clare Paschke	director	5700 CASS AVENUE DETROIT MI 48202
Walter J Aspatore	director	255 E BROWN STREET, SUITE 120, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009
Dennis Bittner	director	113 S 10TH ST ESCANADA MI 49829
Steinhardt Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	650 MADISON AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
David Russ Steinhardt	director, 10 percent owner	650 MADISON AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Steinhardt Capital Investors, Lllp	10 percent owner	650 MADISON AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Mahaney Robert Edward Ii	director	989 WEST WASHINGTON STREET SUITE 102 MARQUETTE MI 49855
Joseph D Garea	director	469 NORTH HANLEY ROAD ST. LOUIS MO 63013
Robert Harris Orley	director	25251 RIVER DRIVE FRANKLIN MI 48025
Lewis Brooks Patterson	director	130 SOUTH CEDAR STREET MANISTIQUE MI 49854
Ernie R Krueger	officer: Executive VP and CFO	130 SOUTH CEDAR STREET MANISTIQUE MI 49854