MGM Resorts International (MGM Resorts International) Predictability Rank

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What is MGM Resorts International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MGM Resorts International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MGM Resorts International (MGM Resorts International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MGM:Mexico MGG:Germany MGG:Germany M1GM34:Brazil

Address

3600 Las Vegas Boulevard South, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89109

Website

https://www.mgmresorts.com

MGM Resorts is the largest resort operator on the Las Vegas Strip with 35,000 guest rooms and suites, representing about one fourth of all units in the market. The company's Vegas properties include MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, Park MGM, Luxor, New York-New York, and Bellagio. The Strip contributed approximately 74% of total EBITDAR in 2022. MGM also owns U.S. regional assets, which represented 31% of 2022 EBITDAR (MGM's Macao EBITDAR was negative in 2022). MGM's U.S. sports and iGaming operations are currently a high-single-digit percentage of its total revenue. The company also operates the 56%-owned MGM China casinos with a new property that opened on the Cotai Strip in early 2018. Further, we estimate MGM will open a resort in Japan in 2030.

Executives

John Mcmanus	officer: SVP ASST GEN COUNSEL ASST SCY	3600 LAS VEGAS BLVD, S., EXECUTIVE OFFICES, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Sanders Corey Ian	officer: COO Core Brands	3950 LAS VEGAS BLVD., S., LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Daniel J Taylor	director	3600 LAS VEGAS BLVD., S., LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Keith A. Meister	director	C/O ICAHN CAPITAL LP, 767 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 4700, NEW YORK NY 10153
Alexis Herman	director	3950 LAS VEGAS BLVD. S., LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Ben Winston	director	3600 LAS VEGAS BLVD. SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Rose Mckinney-james	director	3950 LAS VEGAS BLVD. S., LAS VEGAS NV 89119
William Hornbuckle	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	3600 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Mary Christine Gay	director	3600 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Gary M Fritz	officer: President, Interactive	C/O EXPEDIA INC., 333 108TH AVENUE NE, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Janet Swartz	director	3600 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Ac/interactivecorp	10 percent owner	555 WEST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Paul J Salem	director	50 KENNEDY PLAZA, 18TH FLOOR, PROVIDENCE RI 02903
Todd Meinert	officer: SVP Financial Reporting	3600 LAS VEGAS BLVD. SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Tilak Mandadi	officer: CSITO	3600 LAS VEGAS BLVD. SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109