Magyar Bancorp (Magyar Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Magyar Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Magyar Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Magyar Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Magyar Bancorp (Magyar Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Magyar Bancorp Inc (NAS:MGYR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

400 Somerset Street, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, 08901

Website

https://www.magbank.com

Magyar Bancorp Inc is a mid-tier stock holding company. The Company offers a full array of commercial and retail financial services, including the taking of time, savings and demand deposits; the making of commercial, consumer and home equity loans; and the provision of other financial services. The business consists of getting retail deposits from the general public in the areas surrounding the main office in New Brunswick, New Jersey and branch offices located in Middlesex and Somerset Counties, New Jersey, and investing those deposits, together with funds generated from operations and wholesale funding, in residential mortgage loans, home equity loans, home equity lines of credit, commercial real estate loans, commercial business loans, Small Business Administration loans.

Executives

Michael F Lombardi	director	1862 OAK TREE RD., C/O LOMBARDI & LOMBARDI, EDISNO NJ 08818
Maureen Ruane	director	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08901
Susan Eisenhauer	director	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08901
Peter Mcintyre Brown	officer: SVP and CLO	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08901
Joseph A Yelencsics	director	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08903
Jon Ansari	officer: Senior Vice President, C.F.O.	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08903
John S Fitzgerald	officer: EVP and Chief Lending Officer	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08903
Lukacs Joseph J Jr	director, other: Chairman of the Board	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08903
Stokes Edward C Iii	director	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08903
Brian Stanley	officer: SVP and Chief Lending Officer	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08903
Elizabeth E Hance	director, officer: President and CEO	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08903
Salvatore J Romano	director	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08903
Thomas Lankey	director, other: Vice Chairman of the Board	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08903
Andrew G Hodulik	director	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08903
Martin A Lukacs	director	400 SOMERSET STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08903