Mastech Digital (Mastech Digital) Predictability Rank

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What is Mastech Digital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mastech Digital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mastech Digital (Mastech Digital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Mastech Digital Inc (AMEX:MHH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MS4A:Germany

Address

1305 Cherrington Parkway, Building 210, Suite 400, Moon Township, PA, USA, 15108

Website

https://www.mastechdigital.com

Mastech Digital Inc is a provider of Digital Transformation IT Services. The Company offers data & analytics solutions & IT staffing services for both digital & mainstream technologies. The Group has two segments. Its Data & Analytics Services segment delivers specialized data management, data engineering, customer experience consulting, data analytics & cloud services to customers globally. IT Staffing Services segment combines technical expertise with business process experience to deliver a broad range of services in digital & mainstream technologies. Its digital transformation services also include staffing & project-based services around digital learning. The company derives a majority of its revenue from IT staffing services. Geographically, the majority is from the United States.

Executives

Manoj P Singh	10 percent owner	PUTNAM INVESTMENTS, ONE POST OFFICE SQUARE, BOSTON MA 02109
Sunil Wadhwani	director, 10 percent owner	1004 MCKEE ROAD, OAKDALE PA 15071
Michael Lee Fleishman	officer: See Remarks	1305 CHERRINGTON PKWY, BLDG 210, SUITE 400, MOON TOWNSHIP PA 15108
Vladimir Rak	director	345 COURT STREET, CORAOPOLIS PA 15108
Ganeshan Venkateshwaran	officer: See Remarks	1305 CHERRINGTON PKWY, BLDG 210, STE 400, MOON TOWNSHIP PA 15108
Paul Philip Burton	officer: See Remarks	1305 CHERRINGTON PARKWAY, SUITE 400, MOON TOWNSHIP PA 15109
Brenda C Galilee	director	C/O HALL KINION & ASSOCIATES INC, 75 ROWLAND WAY, SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Steven A Shaw	10 percent owner	503 13TH AVENUE EAST, #205, SEATTLE WA 98102
John J. Cronin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1603 BLACKBURN HTS DRIVE, SEWICKLEY PA 15143
Vivek Gupta	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O MASTECH HOLDINGS, 1305 CHERRINGTON PKWY, BLDG 200, STE 400, MOON TOWNSHIP PA 15108
Gerhard Watzinger	director	2821 TARFLOWER WAY, NAPLES FL 34105
John Ausura	director	210 CAPE COD WAY, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Ashok Trivedi	director, 10 percent owner	1004 MCKEE ROAD, OAKDALE PA 15071
Scott Adam Aicher	officer: See Remarks	2709 PEBBLE BEACH DRIVE, OAKALND MI 48363
Denis D. Deet	officer: VP of Technology and CIO	C/O MASTECH HOLDINGS, INC., 1305 CHERRINGTON PKWY, BLDG 210, STE 400, MOON TOWNSHIP PA 15108