Mead Johnson Nutrition Co (Mead Johnson Nutrition Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Mead Johnson Nutrition Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mead Johnson Nutrition Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mead Johnson Nutrition Co (Mead Johnson Nutrition Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Mead Johnson Nutrition Co (NYSE:MJN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.meadjohnson.com

Mead Johnson Nutrition makes, distributes, and markets pediatric nutrition products worldwide under a variety of brands, including Enfamil, its largest label, along with Sustagen, Enfagrow, and Nutramigen. Infant formula represented 59% of 2015 sales and children's nutrition 39%, with expectant and nursing mother nutrition and pediatric vitamins comprising the remainder. The company sells its products globally; 73% of sales were generated outside the United States in 2015. At about 30% of revenue, China is the company's largest market.

Executives

Kimberly A Casiano	director	C/O FORD MOTOR COMPANY, ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
James E. Shiah	officer: SVP and Controller	2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Howard B Bernick	director	1100 N WOOD DALE RD, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Michael A. Sherman	director	3000 KENT AVE STE A1-100, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47906
Robert S Singer	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Celeste A. Clark	director	C/O ADVANCEPIERRE FOODS HOLDINGS, INC., 9987 CARVER ROAD, BLUE ASH OH 45242
Peter Gervis Ratcliffe	director
Steven Altschuler	director	MEAD JOHNSON NUTRITION COMPANY, 2701 PATRIOT BLVD, GLENVIEW IL 60026
Patrick M Sheller	officer: SVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	343 STATE STREET, ROCHESTER NY 14650
Elliot Sigal	director
James M Cornelius	director
Michael Grobstein	director	C/O GUIDANT CORP, 111 MONUMENT CIRCLE #2900, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204-5129
Anna C Catalano	director	1313 NORTH MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19894
Peter G Leemputte	officer: EVP and CFO	CHICAGO TITLE CORP, 171 N CLARK ST, CHICAGO IL 80601
Lynn H Clark	officer: Sr. VP, Human Resources	2400 WEST LLOYD EXPRESSWAY, EVANSVILLE IL 47721