Maui Land & Pineapple Co (Maui Land & Pineapple Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Maui Land & Pineapple Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Maui Land & Pineapple Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Maui Land & Pineapple Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Maui Land & Pineapple Co (Maui Land & Pineapple Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Maui Land & Pineapple Co Inc (NYSE:MLP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

200 Village Road, Lahaina, Maui, HI, USA, 96761

Website

https://www.mauiland.com

Maui Land & Pineapple Co Inc is a landholding and operating company. ML&P owns, develops, sells, and manages residential, resort, commercial, agricultural, and industrial real estate. It operates in three segments: Real Estate, which includes the development and sale of real estate inventory; Leasing operations include residential, resort, commercial, agricultural, industrial land and property leases; and Resort Amenities segment, which include a membership program that provides certain benefits and privileges within the Kapalua Resort for its members. The majority of its revenue is derived from the Leasing segment. Leasing revenue is generated from restaurants, retail outlets, office buildings, warehouses, and other resort activities.

Executives

Race A. Randle	officer: CEO	C/O MAUI LAND AND PINEAPPLE COMPANY, INC, 200 VILLAGE ROAD, LAHAINA HI 96761
Paulus Subrata	officer: Vice President	200 VILLAGE ROAD, LAHAINA HI 96761
R Scot Sellers	director	C/O ARCHSTONE-SMITH, 9200 E. PANORAMA CIRCLE, SUITE 400, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Scott Nadao Kodama	officer: Accounting Officer	1698 NANA ST., WAILUKU HI 96793
Glyn Aeppel	director	6 WHIPPOORWILL LANE, WESTPORT CT 06880
John Sabin	director	44 HERSHA DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17102
Wade K Kodama	officer: CFO	95-1025 AHIKAO ST., MILILANI HI 96789
Michael Shoma Hotta	officer: CFO	200 VILLAGE ROAD, LAHAINA HI 96761
Anthony P. Takitani	director	200 VILLAGE ROAD, LAHAINA HI 96761
Ryan L Churchill	officer: Senior Vice President	P. O. BOX 187, KAHULUI HI 96733
Stephen M Case	director, 10 percent owner	1717 RHODE ISLAND AVENUE, N.W., 9TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20036
Tim T Esaki	officer: CFO	200 VILLAGE ROAD, LAHAINA HI 96761
Authur C. Tokin	director	P. O. BOX 187, KAHULUI HI 96733-6687
John P Durkin	officer: CFO	P.O. BOX 187, KAHULUI HI 96733-6687
Gerald J Watts	officer: VP/General Mngr. MPC	2530 RED HILL AVE, SANTA ANA CA 92705