Merit Medical Systems (Merit Medical Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Merit Medical Systems Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Merit Medical Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Merit Medical Systems (Merit Medical Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Merit Medical Systems Inc (NAS:MMSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MM3:Germany

Address

1600 West Merit Parkway, South Jordan, UT, USA, 84095

Website

https://www.merit.com

Merit Medical Systems Inc is a medical equipment company that develops and manufactures products for use in interventional cardiology, radiology, and endoscopy procedures. The firm reports two segments which are Cardiovascular and Endoscopy. Majority of the revenue is earned from Cardiovascular segment. United States generates majority of the revenue.

Executives

F. Ann Millner	director	4275 SPRING ROAD, OGDEN UT 84403
Neil Peterson	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1600 MERIT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
A Scott Anderson	director	ONE SOUTH MAIN, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Michel James Voigt	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	1600 W MERIT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Fred P Lampropoulos	director, officer: President & CEO
Lynne Ward	director	1600 WEST MERIT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Raul Jr. Parra	officer: Interim CFO	1600 WEST MERIT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Joseph Wright	officer: President, International	1600 WEST MERIT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Brian G. Lloyd	officer: Chief Legal Officer, Secretary	1600 WEST MERIT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Ronald Frost	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1600 WEST MERIT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN X1 84095
Robert Fredericks	officer: Chief Strategy & Innovation O.	1600 MERIT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Laura S. Kaiser	director	10101 WOODFIELD LANE, ST. LOUIS MO 63132
Michael R Mcdonnell	director	C/O IQVIA HOLDINGS INC., 83 WOOSTER HEIGHTS ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810
Jill Anderson	director	1600 WEST MERIT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Stephen C. Evans	director	C/O ALARM.COM HOLDINGS, INC., 8281 GREENSBORO DRIVE, SUITE 100, TYSONS VA 22102