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Monmouth Real Estate Investment (Monmouth Real Estate Investment) Predictability Rank


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What is Monmouth Real Estate Investment Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Monmouth Real Estate Investment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Monmouth Real Estate Investment Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Monmouth Real Estate Investment's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Monmouth Real Estate Investment (Monmouth Real Estate Investment) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corp (NYSE:MNR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ILPT IIPR NSA LAND JCAP PLYM SELF TRNO QTS STAG PLD PSA DRE LSE:SGRO EXR SGX:A17U TSE:3283 COLD TSE:3281 CUBE
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
101 Crawfords Corner Road, Suite 1405, Holmdel, NJ, USA, 07733
Website
http://www.mreic.reit
Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corp is engaged in the ownership and management of industrial buildings subject to long-term net leases, mainly to investment grade tenants. The company's primary business is the ownership of real estate. Its investment focus is to own well-located, modern, single tenant, industrial buildings, leased primarily to investment-grade tenants.
Executives
Katie Traks officer: Controller 3499 ROUTE 9 NORTH, SUITE 3C, FREEHOLD NJ 07728
Michael P Landy director, officer: President and CEO 3499 ROUTE 9 N STE 3-C, FREEHOLD NJ 07728
Kevin S. Miller director, officer: Chief Financial Officer 65 SANDPIPER DRIVE MANALAPAN NJ 07726
Samuel A Landy director 3499 ROUTE 9 NORTH, STE 3C, FREEDHOLD NJ 07728
Matthew I Hirsch director 3499 ROUTE 9 NORTH, STE 3C, FREEDHOLD NJ 07728
Eugene W Landy director, officer: Chairman of the Board 3499 ROUTE 9 NORTH SUITE 3C, FREEHOLD NJ 07728
Neal Herstik director 3499 ROUTE 9 NORTH STE 3C FREEDHOLD NJ 07728
Daniel D Cronheim director 3499 ROUTE 9 NORTH STE 3C FREEDHOLD NJ 07728
Scott L Robinson director 3499 ROUTE 9 NORTH, SUITE 3C, FREEHOLD NJ 07728
Catherine B. Elflein director 3499 ROUTE 9 NORTH SUITE 3C FREEHOLD NJ 07728
Brian Haimm director 3499 ROUTE 9 NORTH SUITE 3C FREEHOLD NJ 07728
Gregory Thomas Otto director 3499 ROUTE 9 NORTH SUITE 3D FREEHOLD NJ 07728
Kiernan Conway director 3499 RT. 9 NORTH, SUITE 3C, FREEHOLD NJ 07728
Sonal Pande director 101 CRAWFORDS CORNER ROAD SUITE 1405 HOLMDEL NJ 07733
Michael D Prashad officer: General Counsel 101 CRAWFORDS CORNER ROAD HOLMDEL NJ 07733