What is Momenta Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Momenta Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Momenta Pharmaceuticals (Momenta Pharmaceuticals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
301 Binney Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142
Momenta is a biotechnology company focused on the characterization and development of innovative drugs in autoimmune diseases. Its legacy business includes complex generic versions of MS drug Copaxone and anticoagulant Lovenox, and it receives royalties for these products through a partnership with Novartis. While a biosimilar version of Eylea is in the pipeline, Momenta terminated future development in generics/biosimilars in 2018. Several innovative drugs, including nipocalimab, M254, and M230, are in development to treat rare autoimmune diseases.
Executives
| Bruce Downey |
director |
|
| Alejandra Carvajal |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
C/O CERULEAN PHARMA INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139 |
| Jose-carlos Gutierrez-ramos |
director |
C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 675 WEST KENDALL STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Georges Gemayel |
director |
550 HILLS DRIVE, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921 |
| Elizabeth Stoner |
director |
C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 675 WEST KENDALL STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Santiago Arroyo |
officer: SVP, Chief Medical Officer |
C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 675 WEST KENDALL STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Young Kwon |
officer: Chief Financial & Bus. Officer |
C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 675 WEST KENDALL STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Ian Fier |
officer: Chief Mfg and Program Officer |
C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 301 BINNEY STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Steven C Gilman |
director |
110 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Jo Ann Beltramello |
officer: Chief HR and Inf. Officer |
C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 301 BINNEY STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Jane F Barlow |
director |
6800 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY NW, 3RD FLOOR, BOCA RATON FL 33487 |
| Anthony M. Manning |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
C/O PALATIN TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4B CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512 |
| Donna Roy Grogan |
director |
1133 OLD QUEEN ANNE ROAD, CHATHAM MA 02633 |
| Agnieszka Cieplinska |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer (PAO) |
C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. 301 BINNEY STREET CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Craig A Wheeler |
director, officer: President & CEO |
|
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