What is Command Security Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Command Security Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Command Security (Command Security) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Command Security Corp is the provider of full-solution security services. The company provides uniformed security officers and aviation services to commercial, education, financial, healthcare, hospitality, residential, industrial, aviation and governmental customers throughout the United States. In addition, it offers various services including recruiting, hiring, training and supervising all operating personnel as well as paying and providing them with uniforms, fringe benefits, and workers compensation insurance.
Executives
| James P Heffernan |
director |
1012 BAY STREET, DELRAY BEACH FL 33483 |
| Jerry Lavell Johnson |
director |
512 HERNDON PARKWAY, SUITE A, HERNDON VA 20170 |
| David E Smith |
10 percent owner |
888 LINDA FLORA DRIVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90049 |
| Trinad Capital Master Fund Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
4751 WILSHIRE BLVD, 3RD FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90010 |
| Robert S Ellin |
10 percent owner |
4751 WILSHIRE BLVD, 3RD FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90010 |
| Trinad Capital L.p. |
10 percent owner |
4751 WILSHIRE BLVD, 3RD FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90010 |
| Trinad Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
4751 WILSHIRE BLVD, 3RD FLOOR, LOS ANGELES DE 90010 |
| Trinad Advisors Ii, Llc |
10 percent owner |
4751 WILSHIRE BLVD, 3RD FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90010 |
| Barry Regenstein |
director, officer: President and CFO |
C/O COMMAND SECURITY CORP., RTE 55 LEXINGTON PARK P.O. BOX 340, LAGRANGEVILLE NY 12540 |
| Jay Wolf |
10 percent owner |
981 LINDA FLORA DRIVE, LOS ANGELES, CA 90049 |
| Bruce Galloway |
director |
C/O GALLOWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 720 FIFTH AVENUE 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Wade Martin R Iii |
director |
100 ROWLAND WAY, SUITE 300, NOVATO CA 94945 |
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