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Mid Penn Bancorp (Mid Penn Bancorp) Predictability Rank


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What is Mid Penn Bancorp Predictability Rank?

3.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mid Penn Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Mid Penn Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Mid Penn Bancorp (Mid Penn Bancorp) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Mid Penn Bancorp Inc (NAS:MPB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
AMBZ RBB MCBC BWB ACNB FRBA EBTC GNTY HBCP RRBI NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 NSE:ICICIBANK SAU:1120 XPAR:BNP NSE:SBIN ISX:BBCA USB MIC:SBER SGX:D05
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2407 Park Drive, Harrisburg, PA, USA, 17110
Website
https://www.midpennbank.com
Mid Penn Bancorp Inc operates in the financial services domain. It conducts commercial banking and trust business in the United States. Its range of services comprises mortgage and home equity loans, secured and unsecured consists and consumer loans, lines of credit, construction financing, farm loans, community development, and local government loans, and various types of time and demand deposits.
Executives
Hudson Brian Arden Sr. director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
Theodore W Mowery director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
Robert C Grubic director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
De Soto Matthew G director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
Albert J. Evans director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
Robert A Abel director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
Kimberly J Brumbaugh director 349 UNION STREET, MILLERSBURG PA 17061
Joel L. Frank director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
Bruce A Kiefer director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
John E Noone director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
Frank Jr Gumina director 98 FAIRWAY BLVD, MONROE TOWNSHIP NJ 08831
Maureen M. Gathagan director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
Rory G Ritrievi director, officer: President & CEO 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
Quandel Noble C Jr director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110
Gregory M Kerwin director 2407 PARK DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17110