MPLX LP (MPLX LP) Predictability Rank

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What is MPLX LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MPLX LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MPLX LP (MPLX LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » MPLX LP (NYSE:MPLX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MPLXP.PFD:USA

Address

200 East Hardin Street, Findlay, OH, USA, 45840-3229

Website

https://www.mplx.com

MPLX is a partnership that owns both pipelines and gathering and processing assets with extensive holdings in the Appalachian region. The asset base is made up of pipeline assets dropped down from Marathon Petroleum, its sponsor, and gathering and processing assets from MarkWest, which it acquired in 2015. MPLX also acquired Andeavor Logistics in July 2019.

Executives

Christine S Breves	director	600 GRANT STREET, SUITE 6100, PITTSBURGH PA 16059
Shawn M Lyon	officer: Senior VP, Log. & Storage	C/O MPLX, 200 E HARDIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Gregory Scott Floerke	officer: Exec VP and CCO	C/O MARKWEST ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P., 1515 ARAPAHOE STREET, TOWER 1, SUITE 160, DENVER CO 80202
Frank M Semple	director, officer: Vice Chairman	1515 ARAPAHOE ST., TOWER 2, SUITE 700, DENVER CO 80202
Kelly D Wright	officer: VP and Controller	C/O MPLX LP, 200 E HARDIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
John J Quaid	officer: Exec VP and CFO	C/O MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION, 539 SOUTH MAIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Maryann T. Mannen	director	C/O MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION, 539 SOUTH MAIN ST, FINDLAY OH 45840
Ttc Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	539 SOUTH MAIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Timothy J Aydt	officer: Chief Comm. Ofc.,Exec. VP	C/O MPLX LP, 200 E. HARDIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Garry L. Peiffer	director, officer: President	C/O MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION, 539 S. MAIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Gary R Heminger	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION, 539 S. MAIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Dan D Sandman	director
Tesoro Logistics Gp, Llc	other: Less than 10% owner	200 E. HARDIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Western Refining, Inc.	10 percent owner	539 SOUTH MAIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840-3229
Tesoro Refining & Marketing Co Llc	other: Less than 10% owner	539 SOUTH MAIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840-3229