Marine Products (Marine Products) Predictability Rank

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What is Marine Products Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Marine Products Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Marine Products (Marine Products) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Marine Products Corp (NYSE:MPX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MPX:Mexico

Address

2801 Buford Highway NE, Suite 300, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30329

Website

https://www.marineproductscorp.com

Marine Products Corp is a manufacturer of fiberglass motorized boats distributed and marketed through its independent dealer network. It operates in the Powerboat Manufacturing business segment through Nashville, Georgia, Valdosta, and Georgia. Its product offerings include Chaparral sterndrive, outboard, and jet pleasure boats and Robalo outboard sport fishing boats. The company offers its products to the family recreational and cruiser markets through its Chaparral brand and to the sportfishing market through its Robalo brand.

Executives

Gary W. Rollins Voting Trust U/a Dated September 14, 1994	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
Amy Rollins Kreisler	director	2801 BUFORD HIGHWAY, NE, SUITE 520, ATLANTA GA 30329
Lor Inc	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
Michael Schmit	officer: CFO and Corporate Secretary	3055 TORRINGTON DRIVE, BALL GROUND GA 30107
John F Wilson	director	2170 PIEDMONT ROAD, NE, ATLANTA GA 30324
Ben M Palmer	officer: VP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O MARINE PRODUCTS CORP, 2170 PIEDMONT RD, NE, ATLANTA GA 30324
Susan R. Bell	director	852 CASTLE FALLS DR., ATLANTA GA 30329
Patrick J. Gunning	director	1958 CALDER COURT, DUNWOODY GA 30338
Harry J Cynkus	director	2170 PIEDMONT RD, ATLANTA GA 30324
Jerry W Nix	director	2999 WILDWOOD PARKWAY, ATLANTA GA 30339
2007 Gwr Grandchildren's Partnership	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
Rollins Holding Company, Inc.	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
1997 Rrr Grandchildren's Partnership	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
Rft Investment Company, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329
Rctlor, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O RFA MANAGEMENT COMPANY, 1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329