Marten Transport (Marten Transport) Predictability Rank

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What is Marten Transport Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Marten Transport Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Marten Transport (Marten Transport) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Marten Transport Ltd (NAS:MRTN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

129 Marten Street, Mondovi, WI, USA, 54755

Website

http://www.marten.com

Marten Transport Ltd is a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier in the United States. It is engaged in transporting and distributing food and other consumer packaged goods which requires a temperature-controlled or insulated environment. The company operates through four segments including Truckload, Dedicated, Intermodal, and Brokerage. It generates maximum revenue from the Truckload segment. The Truckload segment provides a combination of regional short-haul and medium-to-long-haul full-load transportation services.

Executives

Randall John Baier	officer: Exec. VP & Chief Tech. Officer	129 MARTEN STREET, MONDOVI WI 54755
Thomas J Winkel	director
Patricia L Jones	director	C/O 505 HIGHWAY 169 NORTH, SUITE 1000, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
Larry B Hagness	director
James J Hinnendael	officer: Chief Financial Officer	129 MARTEN STREET, MONDOVI WI 54755
John H Turner	officer: Vice President of Sales	129 MARTEN STREET, MONDOVI WI 54755
Robert L Demorest	director	2235 VALE CREST, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55422
Jerry M Bauer	director
Douglas Paul Petit	officer: President	129 MARTEN STREET, MONDOVI WI 54755
Timothy M Kohl	officer: President	129 MARTEN STREET, MONDOVI WI 54755
Randolph L Marten	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and President	129 MARTEN STREET, MONDOVI WI 54755
Kathleen P Iverson	director	5900 GOLDEN HILLS DRIVE, GOLDEN VALLEY MN 55416
Timothy P Nash	officer: Exec. VP of Sales & Marketing
Ronald Richard Booth	director	129 MARTEN STREET, MONDOVI WI 54755
G Larry Owens	director