Emerson Radio (Emerson Radio) Predictability Rank

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What is Emerson Radio Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Emerson Radio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Emerson Radio (Emerson Radio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Emerson Radio Corp (AMEX:MSN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

959 Route 46 East, Suite 210, Parsippany, NJ, USA, 07054

Website

https://www.emersonradio.com

Emerson Radio Corp operates in the consumer electronics industry. The company designs, sources, imports, and markets a variety of houseware and consumer electronic products, and licenses the Emerson trademark domestically and internationally. Its products are offered to encompass televisions, digital versatile disc players and video cassette recorders, audio accessories, microwave ovens, home theatres, high-end audio products, office products, mobile stereo, and wireless products. geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Richard Li	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O EMERSON RADIO CORP., 35 WATERVIEW BLVD., SUITE 140, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Omen Charm Ltd	10 percent owner	UNIT C, 32/F., TML TOWER, NO. 3 HOI SHING ROAD, TSUEN WAN, NEW TERRITORIES K3 NO ZIP
Bingzhao Tan	10 percent owner	UNIT C, 32/F., TML TOWER, NO. 3 HOI SHING ROAD, TSUEN WAN, NEW TERRITORIES K3 NO ZIP
Guichai He	10 percent owner	UNIT C, 32/F., TML TOWER, NO. 3 HOI SHING ROAD, TSUEN WAN, NEW TERRITORIES K3 NO ZIP
Ocean Rose Global Ltd	10 percent owner	UNIT C, 32/F., TML TOWER, NO. 3 HOI SHING ROAD, TSUEN WAN, NEW TERRITORIES K3 NO ZIP
Wealth Warrior Global Ltd	10 percent owner	UNIT C, 32/F., TML TOWER, NO. 3 HOI SHING ROAD, TSUEN WAN, NEW TERRITORIES K3 NO ZIP
Praisewise Ltd	10 percent owner	UNIT C, 32/F., TML TOWER, NO. 3 HOI SHING ROAD, TSUEN WAN, NEW TERRITORIES K3 NO ZIP
Merchant Link Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	UNIT C, 32/F., TML TOWER, NO. 3 HOI SHING ROAD, TSUEN WAN, NEW TERRITORIES K3 NO ZIP
Splendid Brilliance (ptc) Ltd	10 percent owner	UNIT C, 32/F., TML TOWER, NO. 3 HOI SHING ROAD, TSUEN WAN, NEW TERRITORIES K3 NO ZIP
Aurizon Enterprises Ltd	10 percent owner	UNIT C, 32/F., TML TOWER, NO. 3 HOI SHING ROAD, TSUEN WAN, NEW TERRITORIES K3 NO ZIP
Rise Vision Global Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	UNIT C, 32/F., TML TOWER, NO. 3 HOI SHING ROAD, TSUEN WAN, NEW TERRITORIES K3 NO ZIP
Ho Wing On Christopher	director	146 ROBINSON ROAD, #01-01, SINGAPORE U0 068909
Kin S Yuen	director	C/O EMERSON RADIO CORP., 3 UNIVERSITY PLAZA, SUITE 405, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
Accolade (ptc) Inc.	10 percent owner	C/O 12TH FLOOR, THE GRANDE BUILDING, 398 KWUN TONG ROAD, KOWLOON K3 NONE
Ho Family Trust	10 percent owner	146 ROBINSON ROAD, #01-01, SINGAPORE U0 068909