Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia) Predictability Rank

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What is Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc (NYSE:MSO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.marthastewart.com

Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc is an integrated media and merchandising company providing consumers with inspiring lifestyle content and well-designed, high-quality products. The Company is organized into three business segments: Publishing, Broadcasting and Merchandising. This combination enables it to cross-promote its content and products. Its Publishing segment consists of operations related to magazine and book publishing and digital distribution, mainly through its website, marthastewart.com. Its Broadcasting business segment consists of operations relating to the production of television programming, the domestic and international distribution of its library of programming in existing and repurposed formats. Its Merchandising segment consists of operations related to the design of merchandise and related packaging, collateral and advertising materials, and the licensing of various proprietary trademarks in connection with retail programs conducted through a number of retailers and manufacturers. The Company generally owns the copyrights in the programs it produce for television and radio distribution. In 2013, Martha Stewart's Cooking School season 2 and Martha Bakes seasons 1 and 2 aired on PBS. On January 31, 2013, the Company entered into a new two-year agreement with Sirius XM Radio to produce approximately 10 hours of original programming each week. This agreement with Sirius XM Radio replaces its historical Martha Stewart Living Radio channel with a daily radio show hosted by Martha Stewart, and other MSLO talent, on SiriusXM Stars. In 2010, the Company launched the Martha Stewart Living product line at The Home Depot, which is currently available at all of The Home Depots stores in the United States and Canada, as well as on homedepot.com and Home Decorators Collection catalog business. It competes with the internet businesses of the stores and other websites that sell similar retail goods.

Executives

Kenneth P West	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	10 EAST 40TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10016
Margaret Mary Smyth	director	PO BOX 33428, ST. PAUL MN 55133
Daniel W Dienst	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	325 N. LASALLE ST., SUITE 550, CHICAGO IL 60610
William A Roskin	director	1515 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Martha Stewart Family Limited Partnership	10 percent owner
Allison C Hoffman	officer: EVP, General Counsel and Secy	315 EAST 68TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10065
Martha Stewart	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Creative Officer	C/O MARTHA STEWART LIVING OMNIMEDIA INC, 20 WEST 43RD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10036
Robert W Peterson	director	800 NICOLLET MALL, J1012057, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402-7020
Lisa Gersh	officer: President, COO	C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861
Todd J Slotkin	director	35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021
Charles Koppelman	director	1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 800, NEW YORK NY 10019
Dan E Walker	director	6501 LEGACY DRIVE PLANO TX 75024
Michael W Kramer	director	6301 FITCH PATH, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Robin L Marino	officer: President/CEO Merchandising	MARTHA STEWART LIVING OMNIMEDIA, INC. 11 WEST 42ND STREET, 25TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Michael Goldstein	director	3 EAST 84 STREET, NEW YORK NY 10028