Meritage Homes (Meritage Homes) Predictability Rank

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What is Meritage Homes Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Meritage Homes Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Meritage Homes Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Meritage Homes (Meritage Homes) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » Meritage Homes Corp (NYSE:MTH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MEY:Germany

Address

8800 East Raintree Drive, Suite 300, Scottsdale, AZ, USA, 85260

Website

https://www.meritagehomes.com

Meritage Homes Corp is engaged as a designer and builder of single-family attached and detached homes. It has operations in three regions: West, Central, and East, which are comprised of ten states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Utah. The company operates with two principal business segments; homebuilding and financial services. The homebuilding segments are engaged in the business of acquiring and developing land, constructing homes, marketing and selling those homes and providing warranty and customer services and the financial services segment offer title and escrow, mortgage, and insurance services. The company generates key revenue from the homebuilding segment.

Executives

Phillippe Lord	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT	8800 EAST RAINTREE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Peter L Ax	director
Alison Sasser	officer: SVP - Chief Accounting Officer	8800 E RAINTREE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Hilla Sferruzza	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	8800 EAST RAINTREE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Javier Feliciano	officer: EVP Chief Human Resources Off	8800 EAST RAINTREE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Dennis V Arriola	director	162 CANCO ROAD, PORTLAND ME 04103
R. Odell Michael	director	3111 WEST ALLEGHENY AVENUE, PHILADELPHIA PA 19130
Gerald W Haddock	director	C/O ENSCO, 5847 SAN FELIPE, HOUSTON TX 77057
Raymond Oppel	director
Steven J Hilton	officer: Chief Executive Officer	6613 N SCOTTSDALE RD, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85250
Clinton Szubinski	officer: EVP - Chief Operating Officer	8800 E RAINTREE DRIVE, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Malissia Clinton	officer: EVP - Gen. Counsel, Secretary	333 THREE D SYSTEMS CIRCLE, ROCK HILL SC 29730
Louis E Caldera	director	C/O BELO CORP, PO BOX 655237, DALLAS TX 75265-5237
C Timothy White	officer: EVP - Gen. Counsel, Secretary
Dana Bradford	director	BALLANTYNE OF OMAHA INC, 4350 MCKINLEY STREET, OMAHA NE 68112