Materion (Materion) Predictability Rank

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What is Materion Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Materion Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Materion (Materion) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Materion Corp (NYSE:MTRN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BEM:Germany

Address

6070 Parkland Boulevard, Mayfield Heights, OH, USA, 44124

Website

https://www.materion.com

Materion Corp is a producer of engineered materials based in the United States. The company produces materials used in electrical, electronic, thermal, and structural applications. The company operates in four reportable segments: Performance Materials, Electronic Materials, Precision Optics, and Other. The majority of revenue is derived from Electronic Materials.

Executives

Gregory R. Chemnitz	officer: Vice President General Counsel	6070 PARKLAND BLVD., MAYFIELD HTS. OH 44124
Emily M Liggett	director
John M Zaranec	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	6070 PARKLAND BLVD, MAYFIELD HTS OH 44124
Craig S Shular	director	C/O GRAFTECH INTERNATIONAL LTD, 12900 SNOW ROAD, PARMA OH 44130
Shelly Marie Chadwick	officer: Vice President, Finance & CFO	6070 PARKLAND BLVD, MAYFIELD HTS. OH 44124
Vinod M Khilnani	director	905 WEST BLVD NORTH, ELKHART IN 46514
Patrick M. Prevost	director	C/O SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY, 10000 ENERGY DRIVE, SPRING TX 77389-4954
Joseph P Kelley	officer: Vice President, Finance & CFO	6070 PARKLAND BLVD., MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
Robert J Phillippy	director
Joseph P Keithley	director	NORDSON CORP, 28601 CLEMENS RD, WESTLAKE OH 44145
Richard J Hipple	officer: President of Alloy Products	10035 HUNTING DRIVE, BRECKSVILLE OH 44141
N Mohan Reddy	director	MATERION CORPORATION, 6070 PARKLAND BLVD., MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
Jugal K. Vijayvargiya	officer: President and CEO	C/O DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE, 5725 DELPHI DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
John D Grampa	officer: VP Finance, CFO	MATERION CORPORATION, 6070 PARKLAND BLVD., MAYFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44124
William B Lawrence	director	7875 OLD MILL RD, GATES MILLS OH 44040