Murphy USA (Murphy USA) Predictability Rank

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What is Murphy USA Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Murphy USA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Murphy USA (Murphy USA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Murphy USA Inc (NYSE:MUSA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1MU:Germany 1MU:Germany

Address

200 Peach Street, El Dorado, AR, USA, 71730-5836

Website

https://www.murphyusa.com

Murphy USA Inc is an American retailer of gasoline products and convenience-store merchandise operating in the United States. The stores are 100% company-operated and 90% company-owned; most are adjacent to Walmart stores. The business also contains product supply and wholesale assets, such as product distribution terminals and pipelines. Murphy is positioned in the market as a low-price, high-volume fuel retailer selling through low-cost kiosks and small stores. The stores adjacent to Walmart offer a discount program. The amount of the discount offered can vary based on many factors, including state laws.

Executives

Renee M Bacon	officer: SVP, Sales & Ops	200 PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730
Jennifer Bridges	officer: SVP, Asset Development	200 E. PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730
Robert J Chumley	officer: Senior Vice President	200 PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730
Robert Madison Murphy	director	200 NORTH JEFFERSON SUITE 400, EL DODRADO AR 71730
R Andrew Clyde	director, officer: President & CEO	200 PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730
Christopher A Click	officer: SVP, Strategy & Development	200 PEACH ST, EL DORADO AR 71731
Jeanne Linder Phillips	director	5421 DRANE DR., DALLAS TX 75201
Smith Donald R Jr	officer: Vice President & Controller	200 PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730
Malynda K West	officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer	200 PEACH STREET, PO BOX 7000, EL DORADO AR 71730
Terry P. Hatten	officer: SVP	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD, STE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Rosemary Turner	director	1500 SOLANA BLVD., WESTLAKE TX 76262
David Goebel	director	C/O APPLEBEE'S INTERNATIONAL, INC., 4551 W 107TH STREET, OVERLAND PARK KS 66207
Blake Segal	officer: SVP, QuickChek	200 E. PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730
John A Moore	officer: SVP & Secretary	200 PEACH ST., P.O. BOX 7000, EL DORADO AR 71730
Claiborne P Deming	director	ENTERGY CORP, PO BOX 61000, NEW ORLEANS LA 70161