NASB Financial (NASB Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is NASB Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NASB Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

NASB Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

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NASB Financial (NASB Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » NASB Financial Inc (OTCPK:NASB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

12498 South 71 Highway, Grandview, MO, USA, 64030

Website

https://www.nasb.com

NASB Financial Inc is a federally chartered stock savings bank, whose business is to attract deposits from the general public and to originate real estate loans, other loans, and short-term investments. It has a portfolio of mortgage loans that are secured by multifamily, construction, development, and commercial real estate properties. Its sources of income include interest on loans, interest on MBS, interest on investment securities, customer service fees, and mortgage banking fees.

Executives

Frederick V Arbanas	director	3350 SOUTHWEST HOOK ROAD, LEE'S SUMMIT MO 64082
David H Hancock	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	12498 S 71 HIGHWAY, GRANDVIEW MO 64030
Linda S Hancock	director	5049 WORNALL RD 5EF, KANSAS CITY MO 64112
Wagers Thomas B Sr	officer: Vice President	6444 SUMMIT STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64113
John M Nesselrode	officer: Vice President	22004 W 52ND, SHAWNEE KS 66226
Braman Michael P Jr	officer: Vice President	14074 S BLACKFOOT COURT, OLATHE KS 66062
Dena K Sanders	officer: Vice President	7401 WARD PARKWAY, KANSAS CITY MO 64114
Derek A Bridges	officer: Vice President	3607 W 156TH TERRACE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66224
Barrett Brady	director	411 W 46TH TERRACE, APT 503, KANSAS CITY MO 64112
Laura Brady	director	4949 WORNALL ROAD #300, KANSAS CITY MO 64112
Michael G Anderson	officer: Vice President	14321 MELROSE STREET, OVERLAND PARK KS 66221
Russell W Welsh	director	644 N MEYER BLVD, KANSAS CITY MO 64113
Jim A Watson	director, officer: Vice President	19 WEST 70TH STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64113
Fletcher M Lamkin	director	501 WESTMINSTER AVE., FULTON MO 65251
Wade M Hall	officer: Vice President	14300 CONNELL ST, OVERLAND PARK KS 66021