Novagold Resources (Novagold Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Novagold Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Novagold Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Novagold Resources (Novagold Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Novagold Resources Inc (AMEX:NG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NGR:Germany NGR:Germany NG:Canada NG:Argentina

Address

201 South Main Street, Suite 400, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84111

Website

https://www.novagold.com

Novagold Resources Inc is a mineral exploration company engaged in the exploration and development of mineral properties. The company owns 50% of the Donlin Gold project, which is located in southwestern Alaska, approximately 20 kilometers north of the village of Crooked Creek on the Kuskokwim River.

Executives

Gregory A. Lang	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O TRILOGY METALS INC., 1950 - 777 DUNSMUIR STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1K4
Kalidas V Madhavpeddi	director	511 ARROYO SQ, SOUTH PASADENA CA 91030
Diane R Garrett	director	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Ethan Schutt	director	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Anthony P. Walsh	director	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Dawn Patricia Whittaker	director	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Hume D. Kyle	director	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Quintanilla Daniel Muniz	director	C/O SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION, 11811 NORTH TATUM BLVD., SUITE 2500, PHOENIX AZ 85028
Sharon Dowdall	director	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
David A. Ottewell	officer: Vice President & CFO	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Clynton R. Nauman	director	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
C. Kevin Mcarthur	director	1144 15TH STREET, SUITE 2500, DENVER CO 80202
Igor Levental	director	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Elaine J Dorward-king	director	6363 SOUTH FIDDLER'S GREEN CIRCLE, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
David Deisley	officer: Exec. VP & General Counsel	C/O NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC., 201 SOUTH MAIN STREET, SUITE 400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111