NII Holdings (NII Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is NII Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NII Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NII Holdings (NII Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » NII Holdings Inc (NAS:NIHD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

12110 Sunset Hills Road, Suite 600, Reston, VA, USA, 20190

Website

http://www.nii.com

NII Holdings was incorporated in Virginia but conducts all of its business in Latin America. The firm provides a push-to-talk wireless service, using technology licensed from Motorola, in four countries. It has more than 9 million customers in total throughout Mexico, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina. The firm is rolling out 3G wireless services in all these regions over the next few years.

Executives

Robert A Schriesheim	director	3333 BEVERLY ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Steven M Shindler	director	10700 PARKRIDGE BLVD., RESTON VA 20191
James V Continenza	director	C/O ARCH WIRELESS INC, 1800 WEST PARK DR #250, WESTBOROUGH MA 01581
Christopher Thomas Rogers	director	2001 EDMUND HALLEY DRIVE, RESTON VA 20191
Kevin L Beebe	director	ONE ALLIED DRIVE, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
683 Capital Partners, Lp	other: Former 10% Owner	C/O 683 CAPITAL GP, LLC, 1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Ari Zweiman	other: Former 10% Owner	C/O 683 CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
683 Capital Management, Llc	other: Former 10% Owner	1700 BROADWAY, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Gary Begeman	officer: EVP, General Counsel	10700 PARKRIDGE BLVD., SUSITE 600, RESTON VA 20191
Gokul V Hemmady	officer: Chief Operating Officer	P.O. BOX 1101, MS067, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1101
Juan R Figuereo	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	875 E. CAMINO REAL, APT. # 10-D, BOCA RATON FL 33432
Rosendo G Parra	director	C/O DELL INC., ONE DELL WAY, ROUND ROCK TX 78682-2244
Carolyn Katz	director	C/O AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION, 116 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, BOSTON X1 02116
Charles M Herington	director	1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 4600, DENVER CO 80202
Paulino R Barros	director	1550 PEACHTREE STREET NW, ATLANTA GA 30309