Nektar Therapeutics (Nektar Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1994. Start your Free Trial

What is Nektar Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nektar Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Nektar Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Nektar Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Nektar Therapeutics (Nektar Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Nektar Therapeutics (NAS:NKTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ITH:Germany

Address

455 Mission Bay Boulevard South, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94158

Website

https://www.nektar.com

Nektar Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company. It has wholly-owned research and development pipeline of investigational medicines in oncology, immunology, and virology as well as a portfolio of approved partnered medicines. In oncology, the company is focused on activating the immune system's natural tumor-fighting mechanisms, and it will be studying several immuno-oncology drug candidates in the clinic for a variety of cancer indications. In immunology, it is focused on addressing imbalances in the immune system to restore the body's self-tolerance mechanisms and achieve immune homeostasis. In virology, the company believes selective immuno-modulators can be useful in addressing viral infections in people. The group derives revenue from the United States and the Rest of the World.

Executives

Howard W Robin	director, officer: President & CEO
Jonathan Zalevsky	officer: Chief R&D Officer	455 MISSION BAY BOULEVARD SOUTH, C/O NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Mark Andrew Wilson	officer: SVP & General Counsel	1613 RAY DRIVE, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Myriam Curet	director	1020 KIFER ROAD, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
Jeffrey Robert Ajer	director	C/O BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 105 DIGITAL DRIVE, NOVATO CA 94949
Sandra A. Gardiner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	CUTERA, INC., 3240 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005
Jillian B. Thomsen	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS, 201 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
Robert Chess	director, officer: Executive Chairman
Karin Eastham	director	C/O BURNHAM INSTITUTE FOR MEDICAL RESEAR, 10901 N. TORREY PINES ROAD, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Gil M Labrucherie	officer: SVP, COO & CFO	150 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
John Northcott	officer: SVP & Chief Commercial Officer	455 MISSION BAY BOULEVARD SOUTH, C/O NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Diana Brainard	director	C/O ALLOVIR, INC., 139 MAIN STREET, SUITE 500, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
R Scott Greer	director	6207 E. INDIAN BEND RD, PARADISE VALLEY AZ 85253
Lutz Lingnau	director	15 INDIAN HOLLOW ROAD, MENDHAM NJ 07945
Stephen K Doberstein	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	129 ELSIE STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94110