NRG Energy (NRG Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is NRG Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NRG Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NRG Energy (NRG Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Independent Power Producers » NRG Energy Inc (NYSE:NRG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

NRA:Germany N1RG34:Brazil

Address

910 Louisiana Street, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.nrg.com

NRG Energy is one of the largest retail energy providers in the U.S., with 5.5 million customers. Its 2023 acquisition of Vivint Smart Home adds 1.9 million home services customers. NRG also is one of the largest U.S. independent power producers, with 13 gigawatts of coal, gas, and oil power generation capacity primarily in Texas. NRG exited Chapter 11 bankruptcy as a stand-alone entity in December 2003.

Executives

Rasesh M. Patel	officer: Exec VP, Vivint	C/O VIVINT SMART HOME, INC., 4931 NORTH 300 WEST, PROVO UT 84604
Elisabeth B Donohue	director	C/O SYNACOR, INC., 40 LA RIVIERE DRIVE, SUITE 300, BUFFALO NY 14202
Heather Cox	director	804 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Paul W Hobby	director	4400 POST OAK PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77027
Lawrence S Coben	director	SUNRISE CAPITAL, 685 THIRD AVE 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017-4024
Mauricio Gutierrez	officer: Exec VP & Chief Operating Ofc	211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Antonio Carrillo	director	500 N AKARD ST. SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75201
Bruce Chung	officer: EVP, Strategy and NRG Services	804 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Emily Picarello	officer: Vice Pres & Corp Controller	804 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Robert J Gaudette	officer: Senior VP, Business Solutions	1155 PERIMETER CENTER WEST, ATLANTA GA 30342
Elizabeth R Killinger	officer: Sr. VP & President,NRG Retail	NRG ENERGY, INC., 211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Christopher Moser	officer: Exec Vice Pres, Operations	804 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
David Callen	officer: Chief Accounting Offficer	NRG ENERGY, INC., 211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Alberto Fornaro	officer: Executive Vice Pres & CFO	1415 W. 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Gaetan Frotte	officer: Interim CFO, Sr VP & Treasurer	804 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540