Inergy Midstream LP (Inergy Midstream LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Inergy Midstream LP Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Inergy Midstream LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Inergy Midstream LP (Inergy Midstream LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Inergy Midstream LP (NYSE:NRGM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.crestwoodlp.com

Crestwood Midstream Partners LP, formerly known as Inergy Midstream, L.P., is a Delaware limited partnership formed in November 2011. The Company develops, acquires, owns and operates fee-based assets and operations within the energy midstream sector. The Company owns and operates a diversified portfolio of crude oil and natural gas gathering, processing, storage and transportation assets that connect energy supply with energy demand across North America. The Company has three reporting segments: Gathering and Processing, NGL and crude services, and Storage and Transportation. The Gathering and Processing operations engage in the gathering, processing, treating, compression, transportation and sales of natural gas and the delivery of NGLs. In Gathering and Processing, the Company provides natural gas gathering, processing, treating and compression services to producers in unconventional shale plays located in West Virginia, Wyoming, Texas, Arkansas, New Mexico and Louisiana. The Company owns rich gas systems in the Marcellus, Powder River Basin, Niobrara, Barnett, Granite Wash, and Avalon/Bone Spring Shale plays, and dry gas gathering systems in the Barnett, Fayetteville and Haynesville/Bossier Shale plays. The NGL and crude services operations provide gathering, storage and transportation services to producers, refiners, marketers, and others that effectively provide flow assurances to customers, as well as the production and sale of salt products. Operations in NGL and Crude segment include crude oil rail terminals, the Arrow gathering system, an NGL storage facility, and U.S Salt, LLC. The Storage and Transportation operations provide natural gas storage and transportations services to third parties. The corporate operations include all general and administrative expenses that are not allocated to the reportable segments. The Company owns and operates four natural gas storage facilities located in New York and Pennsylvania that have an aggregate working gas storage capacity of approximately 41.0 Bcf namely Stagecoach, Thomas Corners, Steuben, and Seneca Lake. Further, the Company owns natural gas transportation facilities located in New York and Pennsylvania namely North-South Facilities, MARC I Pipeline, and East Pipeline. Sales of crude oil, NGLs and salt are recognized at the time product is shipped or delivered to the customer depending on the sales terms. The Company is expanding its gathering and compression facilities in the Marcellus Shale.

Executives

John J Sherman	director	C/O CRESTWOOD EQUITY PARTNERS LP, 811 MAIN ST., SUITE 3400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Crestwood Gas Services Holdings Llc	director, 10 percent owner	717 TEXAS AVENUE, SUITE 3150, HOUSTON TX 77002
Crestwood Holdings Llc	director, 10 percent owner	717 TEXAS AVENUE, SUITE 3150, HOUSTON TX 77002
Fr Xi Cmp Holdings Llc	director, 10 percent owner	ONE LAFAYETTE PLACE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Crestwood Holdings Ii Llc	director, 10 percent owner	811 MAIN STREET, SUITE 3400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Crestwood Holdings Partners, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	717 TEXAS AVENUE, SUITE 3150, HOUSTON TX 77002
Fr Midstream Holdings Llc	director, 10 percent owner	ONE LAFAYETTE PLACE, THIRD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
First Reserve Gp Xi, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	262 HARBOR DRIVE, THIRD FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
First Reserve Gp Xi, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner	262 HARBOR DRIVE, THIRD FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
William C Gautreaux	officer: President, Liquids and Crude
Michael Gordon France	director	600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 6000, HOUSTON TX 77002
David Lumpkins	director	600 TRAVIS STREET, SUITE 3250, HOUSTON TX 77002
William E Macaulay	director, 10 percent owner	290 HARBOR DRIVE, FIFTH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
J Heath Deneke	officer: Chief Operating Officer	700 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 2550, HOUSTON TX 77002
Warren H Gfeller	director

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