Norfolk Southern (Norfolk Southern) Predictability Rank

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What is Norfolk Southern Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Norfolk Southern Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Norfolk Southern (Norfolk Southern) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE:NSC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NSC:Mexico NFS:Germany NFS:Germany N1SC34:Brazil NSCO:Austria

Address

650 West Peachtree Street NW, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30308

Website

http://www.norfolksouthern.com

Class-I railroad Norfolk Southern operates in the Eastern United States. On more than 20,000 miles of track, the firm hauls shipments of coal, intermodal traffic, and a diverse mix of automobile, agriculture, metal, chemical, and forest products.

Executives

Phillip S Davidson	director	825 TOWN & COUNTRY LANE, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Francesca A. Debiase	director	MCDONALD'S CORPORATION, 110 NORTH CARPENTER STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607
Alan H. Shaw	officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer	650 W PEACHTREE ST NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Paul B Duncan	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	650 W PEACHTREE ST NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
James A Squires	officer: Sr. V.P. - Law	650 W PEACHTREE ST NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Steven F Leer	director	USG CORPORATION, 125 SOUTH FRANKLIN STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Nabanita C Nag	officer: SVP and Chief Legal Officer	650 W PEACHTREE ST NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Claiborne L Moore	officer: Vice President and Controller	650 W PEACHTREE ST NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Lorri J Kleine	officer: SVP & Chief Legal Officer	650 W PEACHTREE ST NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Claude E Elkins	officer: EVP & Chief Marketing Officer	650 W. PEACHTREE ST, NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Allison Clyde H Jr	officer: Vice President and Controller	650 W PEACHTREE ST NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Ann A Adams	officer: EVP-Chief Transform. Officer	650 W PEACHTREE ST NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Cynthia M Sanborn	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	650 W PEACHTREE ST NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Michael Joseph Wheeler	officer: Sr. Vice President Operations	THREE COMMERCIAL PLACE, 13TH FLOOR, NORFOLK VA 23510
Christopher T Jones	director	2980 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042