Nu Skin Enterprises (Nu Skin Enterprises) Predictability Rank

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What is Nu Skin Enterprises Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nu Skin Enterprises Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nu Skin Enterprises (Nu Skin Enterprises) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Nu Skin Enterprises Inc (NYSE:NUS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NUS:Germany

Address

75 West Center Street, Provo, UT, USA, 84601

Website

https://www.nuskin.com

Nu Skin Enterprises Inc is a health and beauty direct-selling company with a comprehensive product line: anti-aging skin products; peels, masks, and scrubs; moisturizers; body care; hair care; men's care; oral care; sun protection; and cosmetics. The company has three main product divisions: anti-aging, skin, and pharmaceuticals. The pharmaceuticals division offers nutritionals, weight-management products, and food supplements. The company has operations internationally, in more than 50 countries across the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific.

Executives

Andrew D Lipman	director	NU SKIN ENTERPRISES INC, 75 WEST CENTER, PROVO UT 84601
Laura Nathanson	director	C/O NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC., 75 W CENTER ST, PROVO UT 84601
Emma S. Battle	director	101 NORTH CHERRY STREET, SUITE 501, WINSTON SALEM NC 27101
Edwina D Woodbury	director
Steven Keith Hatchett	officer: SVP, Global Products	C/O NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC., 75 W CENTER ST, PROVO UT 84601
Mark H Lawrence	officer: Chief Financial Officer	75 WEST CENTER STREET, PROVO X1 84601
Joseph Y Chang	officer: President-Pharmanex Division	NU SKIN ENTERPRISES INC, 75 WEST CENTER, PROVO UT 84601
Ryan S Napierski	officer: Pres Global Sales & Operations	C/O NU SKIN ENTERPRISES INC, 75 WEST CENTER STREEET, PROVO UT 84601
James D Thomas	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC., 75 W CENTER ST, PROVO UT 84601
Steven Lund	director	NU SKIN ENTERPRISES INC, 75 WEST CENTER STREET, PROVO UT 84601
Jeffrey Clark Bettinger	officer: SVP, People and Places Officer	C/O NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC., 75 W CENTER ST, PROVO UT 84601
Chayce David Clark	officer: EVP and General Counsel	C/O NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC., 75 W CENTER STREET, PROVO UT 84601
D Matthew Dorny	officer: Vice President, other: General Counsel	C/O NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, 75 W CENTER ST, PROVO UT 84601
Tang Connie Mang Yee	officer: EVP Chief Global Growth &, Customer Experience Officer	C/O NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC., 75 W CENTER STREET, PROVO UT 84601
Daniel W Campbell	director	NU SKIN ENTERPRISES INC, 75 WEST CENTER, PROVO UT 84601