Newell Brands (Newell Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Newell Brands Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Newell Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Newell Brands (Newell Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Newell Brands Inc (NAS:NWL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NWL:Germany NWL:Germany N1WL34:Brazil

Address

6655 Peachtree Dunwoody Road, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328

Website

https://www.newellbrands.com

Newell Brands Inc is an American global consumer goods company. The business activities of the group function through five segments namely, Commercial Solutions, Home Appliances, Home Solutions, Learning and Development, Outdoor and Recreation. The learning and Development segment generates most of the revenue for the firm which offers baby gear and infant care products; writing instruments, including markers and highlighters, pens and pencils; art products; activity-based adhesive and cutting products, and labeling solutions.

Executives

Bradford R Turner	officer: Sr. VP, Gen. Sounsel & Secy	C/O NEWELL BRANDS INC., 6055 PEACHTREE DUNWOODY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30328
Gaoxiang Hu	director	16690 COLLINS AVE., SUITE PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Dennis Senovich	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	6655 PEACHTREE DUNWOODY RD, ATLANTA GA 30328
Mark J Erceg	officer: Chief Financial Officer	248 E. SKYLINE DRIVE, WASHINGTON UT 84780
David Willetts	director	16690 COLLINS AVENUE - PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Brett Icahn	director	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Melanie Arlene Huet	officer: President, Brand Management	6655 PEACHTREE DUNWOODY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30328
Stephanie Stahl	director	C/O KNOLL, INC., 1235 WATER STREET, EAST GREENVILLE PA 18041
James Craigie	director	500 CHARLES EWING BLVD, EWING NJ 08628
Mather Courtney	director	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Maria Fernanda Mejia	officer: CEO, International	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599
Carl C Icahn	10 percent owner	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Icahn Partners Lp	10 percent owner	16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Icahn Partners Master Fund Lp	10 percent owner	16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Kristine Kay Malkoski	officer: Business Unit CEO - Food	6655 PEACHTREE DUNWOODY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30328