New Peoples Bankshares (New Peoples Bankshares) Predictability Rank

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What is New Peoples Bankshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

New Peoples Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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New Peoples Bankshares (New Peoples Bankshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » New Peoples Bankshares Inc (OTCPK:NWPP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

67 Commerce Drive, Honaker, VA, USA, 24260

Website

https://www.newpeoples.bank

New Peoples Bankshares Inc is a bank holding company for New Peoples Bank. The Bank offers a range of banking & related financial services focused on serving individuals, small to medium-size businesses, and the professional community. Its main banking services include personal banking, business banking, and financial services. Its banking products comprise checking, savings, deposit accounts, commercial loans, consumer loans, and real estate loans.

Executives

Harold L Keene	director	P. O. BOX 1320, HONAKER VA 24260
B Scott White	director	RT 2, BOX 181-A, CASTLEWOOD VA 24224
Barton Scot Long	other: Director-Subsidiary Bank	300 FOUR WINDS DRIVE, BRISTOL VA 24201
John D Cox	director	13515 EAST CARTERS VALLEY ROAD, GATE CITY VA 24251
John J. Boczar	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	599 TILLIE SCOTT CT, GREENSBORO NC 27455
Christopher Todd Asbury	officer: Senior V.P. & C.F.O.
Kiser W James	officer: EVP/Chief Banking Officer	67 COMMERCE DR, HONAKER VA 24260
Christopher G Speaks	officer: EVP/CFO	104 S. MAIN ST., GREENVILLE SC 29601
J. Robert Buchanan	director	2248 UPPER VALLEY ROAD, TAZEWELL VA 24651
Gina D Boggess	director	PO BOX 5064, PRINCETON WV 24740
Beard John W Jr	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	NEW PEOPLES BANKSHARES, INC., 67 COMMERCE DRIVE, HONAKER VA 24260
Joseph Darrell Pennington	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	5724 BRADINGTON CT, GLEN ALLEN VA 23059
Karen D Wimmer	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	67 COMMERCE DRIVE, HONAKER VA 24260
Richard G Preservati	10 percent owner	PO BOX 1003, PRINCETON WV 24740
Gent Charles H Jr	director	P. O. BOX 330, HONAKER VA 24260