New York Times Co (New York Times Co) Predictability Rank

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What is New York Times Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

New York Times Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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New York Times Co (New York Times Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » New York Times Co (NYSE:NYT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NYT:Germany NYT:Germany

Address

620 Eighth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10018

Website

https://www.nytco.com

New York Times Co is an American media company known for publishing its flagship newspaper, The New York Times. The company also operates the International New York Times newspaper, as well as digital properties such as nytimes and various smartphone applications. Circulation of The New York Times is the source of revenue for the company, followed by print and digital advertising and its paid digital-only subscription to The New York Times. The company has a daily print circulation of over 3,00,000 and 7,40,000 on Sundays. The source of growth for The New York Times is its digital subscription service, which has over 1,000,000 paid users.

Executives

Arthur G. Sulzberger	director, officer: Publisher, The New York Times	THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY, 620 8TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Diane Brayton	officer: EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL & SEC	THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY, 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
R Anthony Benten	officer: SVP, Treasurer & Controller	C/O THE NEW YORK TIMES CO, 229 WEST 43RD ST, NEW YORK NY 10036
Kopit Levien Meredith A.	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY, 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
William Bardeen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	620 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Roland A. Caputo	officer: Interim CFO and EVP	THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY, 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
David S. Perpich	director	THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY, 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Manuel Bronstein	director	970 PARK PLACE, SUITE 100, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Beth A. Brooke	director	C/O EHEALTH, INC., 2625 AUGUSTINE DRIVE, SECOND FLOOR, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Jacqueline M Welch	officer: EVP and CHRO	THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY, 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Arthur S. Golden	director	THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY, 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Mark Thompson	director, officer: PRESIDENT & CEO	THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY, 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Arthur Jr Sulzberger	director, officer: Chairman and Publisher	THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY, 620 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Doreen A Toben	director	140 WEST STREET, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10007
Robert E Denham	director	MUNGER, TOLLES & OLSON LLP, 355 S. GRAND AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071