Owens-Corning (Owens-Corning) Predictability Rank

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What is Owens-Corning Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Owens-Corning Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Owens-Corning (Owens-Corning) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Owens-Corning Inc (NYSE:OC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

O5Q:Germany

Address

One Owens Corning Parkway, Toledo, OH, USA, 43659

Website

https://www.owenscorning.com

Owens-Corning Inc is a manufacturer of glass fiber utilized in composites and building materials. It has an integrated business model with three reportable segments: Composites, Insulation, and Roofing. The company generates maximum revenue from the Insulation segment. Its Insulation segment manufactures and sells thermal and acoustical batts, loosefill insulation, spray foam insulation, foam sheathing, and accessories. It also manufactures and sells glass fiber pipe insulation, energy efficient flexible duct media, bonded and granulated mineral wool insulation, cellular glass insulation, and foam insulation used in above- and below-grade construction applications.

Executives

Marcio A Sandri	officer: President, Composites	ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Mari Doerfler	officer: Vice President and Controller	ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
W Howard Morris	director	1538 STRATHCONA, DETROIT MI 48203
Monaco Nicolas Del	officer: President, Insulation	ONE OWENS CORNING PKWY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Todd W Fister	officer: President, Insulation	ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Gunner Smith	officer: President, Roofing	ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Paula Russell	officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer	ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Jose Mendez-andino	officer: EVP, Chief R&D Officer	ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Kelly Schmidt	officer: Vice President and Controller	ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Brian Chambers	officer: President, Roofing and Asphalt	ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Daniel T Smith	officer: Sr. VP Organization & Admin	OWENS CORNING, ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Gina A. Beredo	officer: EVP, GC and Secretary	C/O OWENS CORNING, ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Paul Edward Martin	director	C/O UNISYS CORPORATION, 801 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, SUITE 100, BLUE BELL PA 19422
Alfred E Festa	director
Kenneth Scott Parks	officer: Sr. VP&Chief Financial Officer	ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659